Strong buying momentum of private homes continues in Q2

Strong buying momentum of private homes continues in Q2

By Mok Fei Fei, 938LIVE

SINGAPORE: Property consultancy DTZ said strong buying momentum of private homes in Singapore has carried on into the second quarter this year.

In its latest Singapore Property Market Report, DTZ estimated that sales in the primary market came up to between 6,700 and 6,900 units from January to June, surpassing the 4,264 units sold for the whole of last year.

As such, the firm is forecasting that this year’s sales are likely to exceed 2006’s level of 11,147 units.

DTZ also added that the secondary market picked up considerably in terms of transaction volume, with more foreigners buying as well.

The proportion of foreign buyers increased from 5 per cent in the first quarter to 8 per cent in April and May alone.

Amidst the buying frenzy, private resale home prices also increased in the second quarter. Homes in prime districts registered higher growth than those in suburban areas.

Average prices of freehold non-landed resale private homes in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 rose 11.3 per cent to S$1,247 per square foot.

Outside the prime districts, average prices of leasehold resale homes increased 3.2 per cent to S$573 per square foot.

The leasing market continued to see decline in rental values, but at a slower pace than the preceding quarter.

Average rental values of homes in prime districts fell 9.1 per cent to S$3.30 per square foot per month, following a 16.2 per cent fall in the previous quarter.

As for retail rents, DTZ said they continued their downward slide in the second quarter this year.

Prime first-storey rents in the city, excluding the Orchard and Scotts Road areas, fell by 3.1 per cent in the second quarter to S$25.40 per square foot per month. The drop was more than the previous quarter’s fall of 2.2 per cent.

In the Orchard and Scotts Road areas, rental falls were more moderate – down by 0.8 per cent to S$39.60 per square foot per month. This is better than the 4.8 per cent decline seen in the previous quarter.

Supported by local resident catchment, rents in suburban areas fell only marginally by 0.6 per cent, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Since its peak in 2008, prime retail rents in the Orchard and Scotts Road areas dropped 6.8 per cent. Those in other parts of the city fell by 6.3 per cent, while those in the suburban areas saw milder declines of 2.1 per cent.

DTZ attributed the drop in prices to new supply coming on stream and the ongoing economic contraction. It added that the H1N1 flu pandemic will be a threat to retail sales and dampen a strong recovery in the retail sector.

- 938LIVE/so

Source : Channel Newsasia - 04 July 2009

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Resale flats: 3 groups of ready buyers

Resale flats: 3 groups of ready buyers

Young couples, families upsizing or downsizing and PRs prop up market
By Jessica Cheam

Mr Chua, who sold his four-room flat in Jalan Membina at $550,000 and bought a five-roomer for about $638,000 in the same estate last month, feels that this is a good time to upgrade because larger flats have been selling below valuation. — ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG

HOME buyers rushed to the HDB resale market in the second quarter and sent sales up as much as 60 per cent over the first quarter, according to property agencies.

These buyers, ranging from young couples to permanent residents and families upsizing or downsizing their homes, have propped up the resale market amid the recession.

They have also contributed to the surprising turnaround in HDB resale flat prices. Flash estimates stated that they rose 1.2 per cent in the second quarter to hit a record high after dipping 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.

Industry observers point to the recent improved market sentiment and low mortgage rates as key factors luring buyers.

The economic downturn has also delivered sellers a reality check, meaning buyers no longer have to fork out high amounts of upfront cash, known as cash-over-valuation, to buy a resale flat.

While agencies differ over the level of sales in the second quarter, they all agree that activity has rocketed.

Data from the Housing Board’s website captured by C&H Realty ahead of official figures due at the end of the month showed a 9 per cent rise in sales transactions for the second quarter compared to the first.

Agencies say the actual figure is much higher due to the large number of transactions done in the last month or so when sales activity picked up across the public and private markets. This would not have been registered by HDB in time.

Property agencies HSR Property Group, PropNex, ERA Asia Pacific and C&H Realty - which together account for almost the entire HDB market - told The Straits Times that sales transactions had surged by between 52 and 60 per cent in the April to June period compared with the preceding three months.

Surprisingly, larger flat types which fast lost popularity when the recession started came back into favour.

HDB data showed that five-room flats climbed 18 per cent, while C&H Realty saw transactions soar 75 per cent, with most done in the past month.

Executive flats enjoyed almost a 20 per cent rise in sales volume, said HDB data.

PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail said prices of bigger flats have come down since their peak. HDB valuations have also caught up, so the cash-over-valuation sum needed to buy a resale flat is very low or zero, he added.

Businessman Melvin Chua, 39, is one such home owner who felt that the time was ripe to upgrade.

He recently sold his four-room flat in Jalan Membina at $550,000 and last month, bought a five-roomer for about $638,000 in the same estate.

The same unit would have cost more than $700,000 last year, said Mr Chua, who is married with one son.

‘Larger flats, like my new home, have been selling below valuation, so I felt it was a good deal,’ he added.

But smaller flat types - the three- and four-roomers - still dominated by market share, thanks mainly to young couples, PRs and downgraders, say agency bosses.

All agencies showed that sales transactions were high for suburban, mature estates such as Woodlands, Jurong West and Tampines.

‘This is due mainly to the fact that comparable HDB flats in these estates are generally more affordable compared to other central estates,’ said C&H Realty managing director Albert Lu.

Agency bosses noted that the spike in sales has prompted agents to return to the business - a turnaround for an industry that suffered an exodus of staff last year when the recession set in.

The strength of the HDB resale market has spilled over to the private sector, where sellers of resale flats - the HDB upgraders - have been snapping up mass market condo units, say analysts.

But sustaining such a level of sales depends on the economy’s performance over the rest of the year, said ERA Asia Pacific associate director Eugene Lim.

‘The momentum will sustain, provided there are no unforeseen circumstances,’ he said.

‘For now, the uncertain outlook will continue to keep pressure downwards despite high demand, and deter sellers from jacking up asking prices if they are serious about selling.’

UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK WILL KEEP PRICES DOWN
‘The momentum will sustain, provided there are no unforeseen circumstances. For now, the uncertain outlook will continue to keep pressure downwards despite high demand, and deter sellers from jacking up asking prices if they are serious about selling.’

ERA Asia Pacific associate director Eugene Lim, about the increased sales and prices of HDB resale flats.

Sustaining such a level of sales will, he notes, depend on the economy’s performance over the rest of the year.

Source : Straits Times - 04 July 2009

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Is property rally sustainable?

Is property rally sustainable?

Even though sales are healthy, prices are far below the peak last year

By Fiona Chan

A YEAR after it started, the recession to end all recessions has yet to hit bottom officially.

But private home buyers in Singapore don’t seem to care. Since February, they have been snapping up almost as many homes each month as during the frenzy of 2007.

The strong demand has caught even property veterans by surprise, and set off furious discussions among property-obsessed Singaporeans.

Their million-dollar question: is this rally for real?

Opinion is divided. For every analyst proclaiming a sunny recovery, there is another warning of a false dawn.

To recap: after a hiatus of several months following the credit crunch last year, the property sector came back to life in February with unexpectedly healthy sales of new condominiums.

Even the stock market collapse in March didn’t deter buyers of new homes, who picked up more than 1,000 units that month for the second time in a row - 10 times what was sold at the low point in October last year. The buying momentum has held steady since then, despite more doomsayers predicting anew each month that the numbers are unsustainable.

Interest in new homes has spilled over to resale homes in the secondary market - which clocked a 70 per cent increase in sales in the second quarter over the first - as well as the harder-hit luxury home segment, where sellers are starting to turn a profit again.

As confidence in the property market builds up, boom times seem to have returned to the showflats. At the recent launch of One Devonshire in Somerset, the two-bedders were so much in demand that buyers had to ballot for them.

Agents for the upcoming Ascentia Sky project in Redhill have begun to take orders - and cheques - even before the showflat opens in the coming weeks.

There is certainly no denying that the property market is faring much better than expected, given that in the first quarter of this year, the economy contracted a record 10.1 per cent and shed the most number of jobs since Sars in 2003.

But some industry veterans, such as Knight Frank managing director Danny Yeo, are reluctant to call the increased buying activity a true rally. Even though sales are up, prices generally are not.

Between April and June, even as buyers returned to the market, the price index for private homes dropped 6 per cent, according to estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Wednesday. Prices have now fallen for four straight quarters and are about 25 per cent off their peak last year.

Experts say that demand for private homes is returning precisely because prices have nosedived. They plunged a precipitous 14.1 per cent in the first quarter, the biggest drop in history.

This is a far cry from 2007’s property boom, when some developers raised prices for their projects multiple times in a single weekend.

Some consultants believe the price index is lagging and will show a slight increase when all the second-quarter sales are taken into account at the end of the month. Wednesday’s estimates are mostly based on deals done in April and May.

But even if this happens, the index isn’t expected to keep rising. Analysts say a sustained increase in the price index that develops into a full-blown rally by the end of the year is unlikely.

A more probable scenario is a plateau: prices and sales stabilising at their current levels for the next few months, with occasional moderate dips or increases, until there is more certainty about the economic outlook next year.

Would-be buyers hoping for another crash in the market are likely to be disappointed unless a major shock takes place, such as a delayed economic recovery, a stock market collapse, or the H1N1 virus turning more deadly, analysts say.

In fact, many dire predictions trumpeted by bears have failed to materialise. Fewer expatriates have left the country than expected. Unemployment is below the all-time high in 2003.

Home-owners and buyers are still able to afford their properties, especially as they have lowered their debt levels and increased their savings. The surprisingly low level of mortgagee sales so far this year - half of that during the Asian Financial Crisis - seems to bear this out.

Concern about oversupply of new homes crashing prices have abated in the light of the robust take-up of recent launches. Instead, low interest rates are encouraging buyers to take up mortgages.

The gravity-defying rise in HDB resale flat prices, which hit an all-time high in the second quarter, provides a firm floor for prices of mass market condos and helps support all the other price levels.

On the other hand, sellers who hope to hold out for a marked improvement in prices, could end up waiting a long time.

For one thing, the stock market resurgence appears to be tapering off, as sentiment gives way to the sobering fundamentals of an uncertain economic recovery, underscored by still-rising unemployment in the United States.

Anecdotally, buyers are also still price-sensitive, a further sign of the fragility of their confidence, although more seem willing to jump on the buying bandwagon for fear of rising prices in future.

Demand may also be limited. Most buyers now are owner-occupiers who were shut out of the 2007 market surge and are unleashing their pent-up demand. When this runs out, sellers and developers will be relying on investors and foreigners to pick up the slack, which may not happen as rentals are expected to continue falling with more homes being completed.

Then there is the deferred payment scheme. Properties sold via the scheme reach completion this year and next, and analysts fear some buyers will dump their units when full payments are due.

In the near term - say, six months - the market should be stable, given that supply and demand factors seem more or less balanced at this point.

But Singapore’s sentiment-driven property market has seldom been rational and hardly predictable, as the last six months have shown.

So it ultimately comes down to which typical Singaporean home-buyer behaviour wins out: the panic of being left out of a property boom, or the fear of buying now and being left high and dry if there is a slump.

Source : Straits Times - 04 July 2009

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Retail rents continue to drop in Q2

Retail rents continue to drop in Q2

By UMA SHANKARI

RETAIL rents continued to fall in the second quarter of 2009 amid economic contraction and new supply, according to a report released yesterday by DTZ Research.

Prime first-storey rents in the Orchard/Scotts Road area fell 0.8 per cent to $39.60 per sq ft per month (psf pm). This was a slower pace of decline, after rents fell 4.8 per cent in Q1. Rents for second-storey space fell 4.5 per cent in Q2 - also less than a 6.4 per cent fall in Q1. Rents in suburban areas fell marginally in Q2, supported by resident catchments. Prime first-storey rents eased 0.6 per cent in Q2 - the same as the fall in Q1.

However, rents in ‘other city areas’ fell more in Q2 than Q1, partly due to new supply that will be completed in the second half of 2009. Prime first-storey rents declined 3.1 per cent to $25.40 psf pm in Q2, more than the previous quarter’s fall of 2.2 per cent. 1.3 million sq ft or 56 per cent of new retail space that will be completed in the rest of the year will be in ‘other city areas’, DTZ estimates.

Anna Lee, associate director of retail at DTZ, said that many retailers and F&B operators have delayed expansion plans or changed their business strategies because of the economic downturn. Some F&B operators have or are considering moving to business parks, where rents are much lower and there is a considerable worker catchment to tap on, she added.

Looking forward, the retail sector will remain under pressure this year because of the downturn in visitor arrivals and the economic contraction, said Chua Chor Hoon, head of DTZ South-east Asia research. ‘Orchard/Scotts Road and other city areas will be more affected due to substantial new supply,’ Ms Chua said.

Other analysts likewise expect retail rents to keep falling this year, with the prime Orchard/ Scotts Road area tipped to be worst hit.

Macquarie Research, for example, said in a June 15 report that it expects prime Orchard Road rents to fall 10-15 per cent this year given new supply coming on stream. For suburban retail rents, a smaller 5-10 per cent year-on-year fall is expected.

‘Historically, retail rent growth is closely aligned with retail sales growth,’ said the firm’s property analysts Tuck Yin Soong and Elaine Cheong.

Source : Business Times - 04 July 2009

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S-Reits underpinned by their properties’ cashflow: S&P

S-Reits underpinned by their properties’ cashflow: S&P

But they will have to contend with leverage and refinancing risks

By RACHEL SIM

REAL estate investment trusts in Singapore or S-Reits will be underpinned by the cashflow resilience of their underlying properties, strong management of operations and capital, and the strength of their sponsors or key shareholders, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) said in a report published yesterday.

Still, in light of the currently sluggish economic climate, S-Reits will have much to contend with as leverage and refinancing risks increase while rents, occupancy rates, cashflows and capital values are on the decline, said S&P credit analyst Allan Redimerio.

‘Most S-Reits have high levels of encumbered assets on their balance sheets - meaning they have little to pledge to banks if conditions worsen.’

‘Given the strong emphasis currently on refinancing risk, we expect S-Reits to continue to assess their options on reducing their financial leverage, as well as increasing the number of unencumbered properties on their balance sheet to provide them with greater financial flexibility,’ said Mr Redimerio.

According to S&P, CDL Hospitality Trust, Parkway Life Reit, Frasers Commercial Trust, First Reit and MacarthurCook Industrial Reit appear to be among the most vulnerable, while CapitaMall Trust, Ascendas Reit, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and CapitaCommercial Trust are expected to be the most resilient against real estate and external shocks.

S&P noted that the government’s decision to increase its share of default risk on certain bank loans to small and medium-sized enterprises will contribute to the recovery of the S-Reits.

Industry watchers have said that more than $4 billion in S-Reit debt is estimated to be due this year for refinancing and a further $2 billion estimated to be due next year.

However, the easing of credit conditions has allowed vital bank funding to flow more easily, aiding the Reits. In an earlier report, UOB Kay Hian cited lower refinancing risks as the reason for its bullish take on the sector.

Source : Business Times - 04 July 2009

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Luxury market to fly in 2 yrs: Wheelock CEO

Luxury market to fly in 2 yrs: Wheelock CEO

David Lawrence is, however, bearish on Singapore office market. By Kalpana Rashiwala

WHEELOCK Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence is sanguine about the island’s residential market and predicts the luxury segment will be ‘doing very well within two years’.

‘You’re not going to make money buying office buildings…My guess is the best way forward for Singapore is to have a reasonably low-cost office sector to attract financial businesses to Singapore.’
– David Lawrence on the importance of keeping Singapore office rents competitive
But he is bearish on the office sector. ‘I don’t know what the policy is, but if I were running the Urban Redevelopment Authority, I would make sure I kept releasing land so that office rents are reasonable and more financial companies relocate to Singapore,’ Mr Lawrence said in a recent interview with BT. ‘So you’re not going to make money buying office buildings now,’ he quipped.

Mr Lawrence, who has a track record of astute property investments, is a chartered surveyor by training. He formerly headed Richard Ellis International in Singapore and Indonesia, and was a founding director of the company’s Thai office.

On Singapore’s residential sector, he said: ‘The mass and mid segments are doing well at the moment. Quality property is the best long-term hedge against inflation. And inflation is definitely going to come in a few years, whether you like it or not, whether governments like it or not.’

Low interest rates are also spurring home sales in the mass and mid-market segments, Mr Lawrence said. ‘The banks have woken up and started lending. They’re not being so ridiculously unrealistic about valuations. They are quite keen to lend to the lower to mid-end of the market at the moment.’

The luxury market is starting to move, but not in such a big way. ‘Sub-sale prices are going up,’ he said. ‘Although there is a bit of over-supply, actually buyers are very focused on certain developers and certain projects. A lot of the supply, people aren’t interested in really because it isn’t good investment-quality product.

‘New entrants into the market who are not developers, like the contractors, for example’, will just have to reduce their prices, he pronounced. BT understands that luxury residential developers are starting to see a trickle of sales above $3,000 per sq ft - after a hiatus of more than six months.

Another factor that is helping to draw home buyers again is ‘a lack of trust in international banks and the financial instruments they are trying to sell’, Mr Lawrence said. As well, the weaker Singapore dollar is making direct property investment attractive for overseas buyers. And there’s a shortage of investment-grade stock in all sectors.

Mr Lawrence notes there haven’t been any large distressed asset sales, due to the generally low gearing of major property companies.

Singapore’s reputation as a well-governed and safe place to live is also a strong pull for foreign buyers. It emerged as the 18th most liveable city in a recent ranking of the 25 most liveable cities by the magazine Monocle. It was the only tropical financial centre in the list, Mr Lawrence said.

On his bearish take on the office market, he said: ‘(Minister for National Development) Mah Bow Tan has managed supply and demand for the office market well in the past 10 years, but everything went up a bit crazy in the past two years and office rents got too high for the long-term development of Singapore as a financial centre.

‘The current crisis has brought rents down to a more reasonable level. My guess is the best way forward for Singapore is to have a reasonably low-cost office sector to attract financial businesses. The government has prepared a lot of infrastructure, land, ready to expand the office market, particularly in the Marina Bay area. The land should be released on a regular basis so we don’t get any more spikes in office rents.’

Grade A office rents here doubled in 2007, but have fallen about 45 per cent since peaking in Q3 last year.

A policy of keeping office rents competitive will create spin-offs for the residential sector ‘because you get more companies coming in to lease or buy’ homes, Mr Lawrence said.

As well, the opening of new offices in Singapore, with an increase in the population, will help generate more sales for retailers and ameliorate the effects of over-supply in the retail property market arising from the completion of new malls.

Source : Business Times - 04 July 2009

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Private resale home prices up in Q2, says DTZ

Private resale home prices up in Q2, says DTZ

12.8% increase in average price of 2-bedroom units; firm expects full-year primary market sales to top 2006 figure of 11,147 units

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

THE average price of freehold non-landed resale private homes in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 increased 11.3 per cent to $1,247 per sq foot in the second quarter from Q1, says DTZ.

This followed a 3.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) price fall in Q1.

Two-bedroom units posted a 12.8 per cent q-on-q gain in Q2, as their lower quantum prices stimulated interest among people hoping to own prime district property.

But DTZ considers the Q2 price gain a blip supported by buyers’ fears of missing the bottom, pent-up demand and low interest rates - rather than economic fundamentals.

As for primary market sales, the property firm is now projecting that developers’ private home sales for the whole of 2009 are likely to surpass the 11,147 units achieved in 2006, which was the second-highest performance after the 14,811 homes they sold in 2007.

In the first six months of this year, the tally was about 6,700 to 6,900 units.

DTZ’s figures also show the average price of luxurious non-landed resale homes rose 9.6 per cent q-o-q to $2,060 psf in Q2.

Outside the prime districts, the average resale price of 99-year leasehold homes rose 3.2 per cent q-o-q to $573 psf in Q2, as prices had fallen less and there are fewer ’specu-vestors’ in this segment.

Earlier this week, the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s flash estimate showed the overall private home price index declined 5.9 per cent in Q2 from Q1.

Despite DTZ’s figures showing an increase in resale prices of non-landed homes in Q2, DTZ’s head of South-east Asia Research Chua Chor Hoon said: ‘Without a clear recovery in sight for the US and Singapore economies, the price recovery in Q2 2009 is not sustainable and sales volume would be affected if prices continue to rise.’

She noted that average resale prices have fell only 10-35 per cent between Q4 2007 and Q1 2009, compared with the fall of 35-45 per cent from the Q2 1996 peak to the Q4 1998 Asian financial crisis trough.

The number of caveats lodged for resales and sub-sales in April and May this year exceeded that for the whole of Q1 by 70 per cent. The proportion of foreign buyers, excluding Singapore permanent residents, rose from 5 per cent in Q1 to 8 per cent in April and May.

Indonesians and Malaysians accounted for 49 per cent of caveats lodged in April and May by foreigners and Singapore PRs, compared with 40 per cent in Q1.

Sub-sales and resales are secondary-market transactions. Sub-sales involve projects that have yet to obtain a Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC), while resales relate to projects that have received CSC.

Meanwhile, as new supply came on stream amid waning demand, rents continued to fall in Q2, although at a slower pace than in Q1.

The average rental value of prime district homes slipped 9.1 per cent to $3.32 psf per month in Q2, after a 16.2 per cent slide in Q1.

Rents for luxury homes were the hardest hit, with a 10.6 per cent decline to $4.65 psf per month - back to their Q4 2005 level.

Source : Business Times - 04 July 2009

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Wheelock chief urges separate listing regulator

Wheelock chief urges separate listing regulator

David Lawrence takes a critical view of safeguards offered by Chinese walls

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

WHEELOCK Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence has joined the ranks of those calling for a separate authority to regulate listed companies in Singapore as the existing authority, Singapore Exchange, faces an inherent conflict of interest as it is a listed company.

‘I think what is needed is a separate regulatory authority in Singapore. Not the MAS, but a separate regulatory authority for the listing of companies in Singapore. So that Singapore can maintain its international reputation and integrity.

‘It is better to expand slowly with better companies than to expand quickly with crap companies with directors you can’t trust,’ Mr Lawrence said in a recent interview with BT.

Being a listed company, SGX, its CEO and directors have a duty to make money for their shareholders and expand the business, he added. ‘The SGX is competing with me for investors’ capital. Why should a competitor regulate me? Maybe I should regulate them!’ he quipped.

Mr Lawrence observed that the same problem exists in Hong Kong, where a discussion has been raging on the topic for years.

Mr Lawrence debunked the notion of Chinese walls. ‘SGX will probably say, like all the investment bankers have been saying to me for the last 10 to 20 years, ‘Well, we have Chinese walls between departments.’

‘I’ve been saying to these investment bankers for 20 years, ‘Have you ever walked along (the Great Wall of China)?’ No, they haven’t. I have, and I can tell you there are more holes than there are actual built walls.’

Market watchers note there’s been a long-standing discussion on the potential conflict facing the SGX because of its dual role as a commercial entity and markets regulator. Some have criticised the SGX for not taking a tougher regulatory stand against errant companies listed on the bourse here, arguing that SGX may see tough actions as working against its attractiveness as a listing platform. Critics also point out that SGX’s earnings and losses are shared by both the regulatory and listing departments.

The race to attract China companies or S-Chips to list here in the past may have led to SGX pulling in some poor-quality issuers whose share prices have been punished by the market. Those monitoring the real estate investment trust market also wonder how some Reits that don’t have any raison d’être ever got listed in Singapore.

Observers also point out that SGX’s top regulator, Yeo Lian Sim, receives performance shares from the company, which could potentially create conflict.

Agreeing, Mak Yuen Teen, co-director of the Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting Centre, said: ‘I hold the view that those involved with managing risk, internal audit or regulatory functions should not have variable pay tied to the bottomline or stock price of the organisation. The company has to think of other ways of measuring their performance and rewarding them.’

SGX has maintained that it has a robust framework of checks and balances to ensure that its regulatory and commercial goals are not divergent.

For instance, a Regulatory Conflicts Committee comprising SGX’s independent directors oversees the handling of regulatory conflicts within SGX. The committee in turn accounts for its actions to MAS.

Source : Business Times - 04 July 2009

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