Low point of crisis may be over, feels Singapore Temasek unit

Low point of crisis may be over, feels Singapore Temasek unit

Investors have reached the point of maximum fear, says Fullerton CEO
(SINGAPORE) Temasek Holdings’ fund management unit says investors have passed ‘the point of maximum fear’ amid the global credit squeeze. Fullerton Fund Management sees the US Federal Reserve’s decision to rescue Bear Stearns as a turning point in the crisis.
‘The Fed coming in to facilitate JPMorgan Chase & Co’s purchase of Bear Stearns is a watershed event, and most bottoms are found during watershed events,’ Fullerton CEO Gerard Lee said in an interview here yesterday. ‘From that perspective, we could have already crossed the point of maximum fear.’

The Fed stepped in with JPMorgan on March 14 to provide emergency funding to Bear Stearns in the biggest government bailout of a US securities firm. The move is now being probed by the Senate.

Before the announcement, Bear Stearns’ clients withdrew US$17 billion in two days amid speculation that the firm was running short of cash.

Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius said he ‘generally’ agrees with Temasek’s assessment that the markets have reached a bottom.

‘If we haven’t achieved it, we’re damn close,’ Mr Mobius, who oversees US$47 billion in emerging- market equities, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong yesterday.
 
‘With the kind of liquidity that’s pouring into the system, with the Fed, and now the European Central Bank and others putting more money into the system, we think stock prices are not going to remain down. We think there’s a good chance of growth going forward.’

Some funds are already planning to buy shares in Asia, where stocks have tumbled this year even as economies in China and India continue to grow. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index trades at 14 times estimated earnings, after slumping 13 per cent the past six months as fallout from the US sub-prime crisis spread through Asia, making stocks in the benchmark 36 per cent cheaper than the five-year average.

Value Partners Group, Asia’s second-largest hedge fund manager, is buying stocks in the region that were battered by the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market, chief investment officer Cheah Cheng Hye said this week. The Hong Kong-based asset manager aims to start a new fund in the second quarter to invest in Greater China property stocks, Mr Cheah said.

Funds such as Clariden Leu AG, which manages US$300 million, said the recovery from the US housing crisis may take 1-2 years.

‘What we have seen in the last couple of weeks culminating in the rescue of Bear Stearns by the Fed and a further pump of liquidity in the market may somewhat signal an inflexion point in the crisis - but this bottoming-out phase, we reckon, will take a long time,’ Michael Foo, head of Asian portfolio management at Clariden, said in an interview yesterday.

Fullerton, which oversees US$2.5 billion of third- party money, is still bullish on prospects in Asia, where it has most of its assets. It said the goal to manage US$3 billion excluding Temasek’s funds by mid-year is achievable. Temasek manages a portfolio worth more than US$100 billion.

‘The fundamental reasons for this secular growth are all in place,’ Mr Lee said. ‘The few of the big economies are found in Asia. I’m talking about China, India, Vietnam and South Korea. So Asia, being a destination for investment money from the developed world, will continue to grow.’

Fullerton’s main customers are wealthy individuals in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and institutions in Singapore, where it became a separate unit of Temasek in 2003. It aims to expand in the US, Europe, Australia and the Middle East. — Bloomberg
Source : Business Times  - 28 March 2008

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Property trust to acquire office building for $1.17b -Singapore

Property trust to acquire office building for $1.17b -Singapore
 
Sale of 1 George Street to CCT comes with arrangement guaranteeing yields

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent 
PRIME PROPERTY: The 23-storey 1 George Street building offers its owner high returns from rents, as it sits near the Raffles Place and Clarke Quay MRT stations. — ST PHOTO: DESMOND WEE
 
CAPITACOMMERCIAL Trust (CCT) plans to buy a three-year-old office block - the building was completed in 2004 - in the Central Business District (CBD) for $1.17 billion from its biggest shareholder, CapitaLand.
The purchase of the 1 George Street building will augment the property trust’s other prime blocks at a time of tight office supply and rising rents.

CCT’s portfolio includes Capital Tower in Robinson Road, 6 Battery Road, the HSBC Building in Raffles Place and a majority stake in Raffles City.

The 1 George Street transaction works out to $2,600 per sq ft (psf) of net lettable area.

The deal comes with a form of yield protection. CapitaLand will ensure a minimum net property income of $49.5 million a year for five years from the day the sale is completed.

This translates into a net yield of 4.25 per cent a year on the purchase price, CCT said in a statement, and implies a rental rate of about $10.50 psf.
The yield protection arrangement makes the acquisition compelling, as CCT’s current Grade A office assets have an average yield of 3.2 per cent per annum, said CCT’s chief executive, Ms Lynette Leong.

Ms Leong said buying 1 George Street would increase CCT’s net property income contribution from such assets from 43 per cent to about 55 per cent.

‘The 4.25 per cent yield is reflective of the current office market,’ said Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han.

‘Prime office acquisitions last year were done at average yields of between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent.’

The yield protection arrangement will also shield the trust from any potential oversupply situation in the office market from 2010 and beyond, he said.

CCT’s Grade A office buildings have done well. Asking rents at 6 Battery Road in Raffles Place, for example, have risen to $22.50 psf, with rent deals done above $20 psf.

The 23-storey 1 George Street is well sited to benefit from high CBD rents, being near the Raffles Place and Clarke Quay MRT stations, said CCT.

There is good upside for rents, as it was completed in 2004, when the office leasing market was sluggish.

The building is fully occupied, but about half the rental leases will be up for revision over the next two years, said Ms Leong.

Tenants at 1 George Street include The Royal Bank of Scotland, WongPartnership and the Canadian High Commission.

CapitaLand said it expected a gain of about $47 million from the sale. This is after taking into account the yield protection and its 30.5 per cent interest in CCT.

It said the divestment was in line with its strategy of unlocking value from commercial properties at the appropriate time to recycle capital.

CapitaLand gained full ownership of 1 George Street last year, when it bought German insurer Ergo’s 50 per cent stake in the building at $2,700 psf of net lettable area.

CCT will seek unitholder approval for the deal at an extraordinary general meeting before June 30, so the deal can be completed before July 31.

As CCT has secured committed funding for the entire purchase price, it does not need to do a placement of CCT units or a rights issue to raise cash.

Its gearing, however, will rise to 40 per cent from 27 per cent.
Source : Straits Times  - 28 March 2008

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New Singapore HDB grant for filial singles

New Singapore HDB grant for filial singles 

$20,000 subsidy for singles who buy resale flat to live with parents

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent 
SINGLE Singaporeans who opt to buy an HDB resale flat in order to live with their parents can now get a housing subsidy of $20,000.
The subsidy aims to encourage children to look after their parents while helping them get a bit further up the property ladder.

It is a variation of an existing programme - the Single Singapore Citizen Scheme, which allows single people aged 35 and above to apply for a $11,000 CPF housing grant to buy a resale flat to live on their own.

The $20,000 subsidy - called the higher-tier Singles Grant - starts on Tuesday and comes with a number of conditions.

Applicants must be aged 35 and above, be first-time HDB buyers and must not earn more than $3,000 a month if they are buying alone.

They must also commit to living with their parents in the flat for at least five years.

Housing grants for singles

Singles grant
For singles buying a resale flat for their own use: $11,000
Higher-tier singles grant
For singles buying a resale flat to share with their parents: $20,000
Joint singles grant
For two to four singles who jointly buy a resale flat. They must all share the property and may also share with sets of parents subject to a monthly household income ceiling of $8,000. They can get up to one singles grant and one higher-tier singles grant, or up to two singles grants or two higher-tier singles grants. $40,000 max.

Note: The singles grants are applicable to unmarried singles and divorcees aged 35 and above. Orphans and widowed individuals must be over 21.
Parents have obligations as well. They cannot buy or own another HDB flat or invest in private property within this period.

This means they will have to dispose of any property they own before they can qualify as co-occupiers in the subsidy application.

The $20,000 grant is also subject to other HDB policies such as resale levy liability, but it can be used by singles buying flats under the Design, Build and Sell Scheme.

The subsidy, which was announced in Parliament on March 5, is not a cash grant and can be used only for initial payment on the flat or to reduce the mortgage.

Singles buying resale flats under the joint singles scheme can also apply for the new grant.

‘It’s not something that will make all singles jump for joy as most want an opportunity to buy a flat to live on their own,’ said MP Charles Chong, chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for National Development and Environment.

But it will benefit a small group who prefer to live with their parents.

The HDB said about 270 people applied each year, between 2003 and 2007, for a singles grant to buy a resale flat with their parents.

Mr Chong felt the new subsidy does not go far enough.

He said feedback he has received suggests that singles want to be treated the same as married people, including the right to buy a new flat direct from the HDB.

He added: ‘If the purpose (of the higher grant) is to encourage children to look after their parents, then the grant should also be given to married children living with their parents.’

Source : Straits Times  - 28 March 2008

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URA plans new community space at Dhoby Ghaut MRT station

URA plans new community space at Dhoby Ghaut MRT station

The open space above the Dhoby Ghaut MRT station will be Singapore’s latest venue for community activities and performances.

This is all part of the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA)’s plan to increase the number of public spaces along the Orchard Road area.

By July next year, the plot of land at Dhoby Ghaut will be transformed into a new space that will host community events and performances.

The project is part of URA’s strategy to provide variety along the Orchard Road shopping belt.

Fun Siew Leng, Director, Urban Planning and Design, URA, said: “We’d like to continue to safeguard some of these vacant state land for future rejuvenation for the area. So in the interim, we thought that it’s better to put it to a better use. We put some facilities and amenities there and the public can get to enjoy the space better.”

The site sits at the crossroads of three rail lines and features an integrated borderless design.

The centrepiece will be this outdoor amphitheatre that will serve as a stage for community performances.

The unique “basket-weave” design of aluminium screens can seat up to 500 for an “outdoor room” concept.

Chan Soo KIan, Design Director, SCDA Architects, said: “It’s a little bit of form follows function and form dictating function. We’re working with various forces. We’re also responding to the unique site conditions as it’s next to the MRT and next to several drop off and bus stations. So we had to approach from the point of view that this structure would not have a front or a back.”

“There’ll be more land area for people to do their activities and there won’t be so many buildings,” said one member of the public.

“Great because people need more space, more places like this to have morning exercise,” said another.

The project will cost around S$4 million.

URA says feedback was gathered from community stakeholders and their input incorporated into the final design.

Community stakeholders included the People’s Association and the Singapore Management University to better understand their needs. - CNA/ch
Source : Channel NewsAsia  - 27 March 2008

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Singapore URA unveils sales conditions for two reserve list sites

Singapore URA unveils sales conditions for two reserve list sites
SINGAPORE : The Urban Redevelopment Authority has released detailed sales conditions for two reserve list sites at Clemenceau Avenue/Havelock Road and Upper Changi Road North/Flora Drive.

The site at Clemenceau Avenue is slated for hotel development.

The parcel is close to the popular entertainment districts of Clarke Quay, Boat Quay and Robertson Walk.

It has an area of about 5,500 square metres and a permissible gross floor area of 11,555 square metres.

Consultant Knight Frank expects a three to four-star business hotel to be built with up to 270 rooms.

It is estimating the land price to be in the range of S$600 to S$650 per square foot per plot ratio, or up to S$81 million in total.

A second site released at Upper Changi Road North parcel can be used for residential development.

The site has an area of 30,682 square metres and a maximum permissible gross floor area of 42,956 square metres.

Knight Frank says the new development could yield up to 400 units, which could be sold at between S$650 and S$720 per square foot.

This will result in a land price of about S$83 million to $111 million, or up to S$240 per square foot per plot ratio. - CNA/ch

Source : Channel NewsAsia  - 27 March 2008

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Last year’s boom in investment sales likely to continue in ‘08

Last year’s boom in investment sales likely to continue in ‘08

By JEREMY NLAKE
IT was an eventful 2007 for the Singapore property investment sales market, which hit a record $55.29 billion in volume of transactions. This was 81 per cent higher than the previous record of $30.59 billion in 2006. The robust momentum in the investment market was largely driven by active acquisition of development sites by developers in both the private and public sectors. The office sector was also very active.
 
Total residential investment sales amounted to $34.43 billion in 2007, representing 62 per cent of total investment sales and an increase of 118 per cent year-on-year.
 
 
The investment market was exceptionally active last year for the following reasons:
A reversal of the ‘perfect storm’ - a combination of factors that allowed Singapore’s property market to hit the sweet spot.
Strong economic growth of 7.7 per cent in 2007.
Office and residential market property booms.
Strong interest from foreign real estate investors, both corporate and individuals.
Emergence of Singapore as a service centre hub for Asia, for example private banking, back offices, medical centre and education.
Feel-good factors such as the Formula One and integrated resorts.

The private sector investment sales market took the lead in 2007, accounting for 79 per cent of total investment sales or $43.63 billion. Public sector sales contributed the remaining 21 per cent or $11.66 billion.
 
Altogether, 39 government sites were bought by developers during the year, made up of three ‘white’ sites, 12 residential sites, eight commercial sites, six hotel sites and 10 industrial sites.

In addition, five residential sites at Sentosa Cove were sold for a total of $1.11 billion in 2007.

Significant public land sales in 2007 included a prime ‘white’ site at Marina View (Land Parcel A), which was awarded to Macquarie Global Property Advisors (MGPA) for $2.02 billion, and a commercial site at Beach Road, which was sold to a consortium comprising City Developments, the Istithmar Group and the Elad Group for $1.69 billion.

By sector, the residential sector took the lead in investment sales in 2007. Total residential investment sales amounted to $34.43 billion in 2007, representing 62 per cent of total investment sales and an increase of 118 per cent year on year.

A total of 116 collective sales were transacted in 2007, generating investment sales of $13.64 billion, exceeding the $8.2 billion from a total of 79 collective sales concluded in 2006 and is the highest ever.

Interestingly, many, including a number of overseas institutions and individuals, were observed to have purchased bulk apartments in residential projects before or after each project was officially launched for sale.

There was the purchase of 16 units at The Orchard Residences by a Thai investor for $135 million and a fund linked to MGPA acquired 162 units at The Cascadia for a total of $280.36 million. Also, a joint venture between US-based Wachovia Group and City Developments acquired 44 units at Cliveden at Grange for $432.43 million.

Investment activity in the office sector remained strong throughout the year, with increasing foreign investor participation, supported by strong market fundamentals.

Total office investment sales generated $14.19 billion worth of sales or 26 per cent of the year’s total investment sales. This was nearly triple the $4.79 billion recorded in 2006. On the back of an upbeat office market, prime office properties continued to be highly sought after by Reits and foreign funds as they expanded their investment reach in Singapore.

About $4.86 billion worth of private en bloc office buildings and strata-titled office properties was acquired by these investors which in turn gave them a 54 per cent share of the $8.97 billion in total private major office transactions in 2007. The most significant transaction was the acquisition of Temasek Tower by MGPA at $1.04 billion.

Other notable office sales included the sale of Chevron House to a US fund for $730 million and the sale of 78 Shenton Way to Commerz Grundbesitz Investmentgesellschaft (CGI), a German fund, for $650.78 million. The deal was CGI’s first foray into the Singapore property market.

Another German fund, SEB Asset Management, displayed strong interest in office properties by acquiring the SIA Building, 12 floors at Springleaf Tower and 10 floors in 79 Anson Road for a total of $965.91 million in 2007.

In addition, New Star Asset Management, a UK fund, acquired Parakou Building for $128 million and One Phillip Street for $99.02 million.

Reit-related office sales in 2007 included Keypoint at Beach Road which was acquired by Allco Commercial Reit for $370 million, inclusive of income support of up to $10.5 million for two years to be provided by the vendor. Both Keppel Land and Cheung Kong Holdings divested their one-third stakes in One Raffles Quay to K-Reit and Suntec Reit respectively, for $941.5 million each.

Looking ahead, strong office demand and potential for further rental escalation will lead to more buying of quality office properties in 2008. The sustained influx of foreign investors should continue to lead to brisk activity in the office investment market and provide strong support to prices.

Despite some volatility resulting from the global credit crunch and the slowing down of the US economy, investment sentiment will remain positive albeit a little cautious in 2008, due to the healthy economic forecast for Singapore.

Mounting inflationary pressure, the divergence of the weakening US dollar, the high level of liquidity in the investment market and the perception of promising returns have combined to make Singapore real estate an attractive investment alternative.

Investment activity in the office sector is likely to continue to outperform other property sectors given the limited supply coming on stream in the short term.

Foreign funds and Reit-related parties will also continue to lend support to the investment market, showing keen interest particularly in offices, retail and industrial assets.

The writer is executive director, investment properties, at CB Richard Ellis

Source : Business Times - 27 March 2008

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Singapore Dhoby Ghaut set to turn super hip

Singapore Dhoby Ghaut set to turn super hip

By SARA LIM

COME early 2009, the vacant space above Dhoby Ghaut MRT Station may just be the hippest spot in town, playing host to flea markets, soccer matches, buskers and community performances.
Unveiling a plan to transform the area, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said yesterday it will spend an estimated $4 million on a sculptured outdoor amphitheatre and a cafe pavilion on the yet-unnamed open space.

Architect Chan Soo Khain, winner of the inaugural President’s Design Award for Architecture and Urban Design, has been commissioned to handle the project.

According to Mr Chan, the amphitheatre will be the centrepiece that invites people into the space. Designed to ‘melt back into the landscape’, the partly-sheltered theatre will have a spiral design with woven aluminium louvres inspired by a rattan basket.

It will be built into the ground, with a structural height of no more than 4-5 metres. ‘We wanted to create a unique arrival experience, that of walking down a ramp into the theatre,’ Mr Chan explained.

The interlocking curves of the amphitheatre will divide the land into three zones: a paved plaza area at the western end; an open field at the eastern end; and the amphitheatre itself, which will house a stage and associated amenities such as changing rooms.
 
When completed, the 1.3 hectare space will be open to the public at all times, functioning like a neighbourhood park in the city centre. The land will serve the community for at least 10-20 years as there are no plans to develop it in the medium term.

URA said open spaces enhance and enrich community life and add more vibrancy to the city. It is hoped this new project will add variety to existing public parks and open spaces in the city centre.

‘We hope this new open space will reinforce a sense of belonging to the city,’ said URA chief executive Cheong Koon Hean.
Source : Business Times - 27 March 2008

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Church puts up Singapore Telok Kurau site for tender sale

Church puts up Singapore Telok Kurau site for tender sale

Marketing agent CBRE pegs guide price at $40m
THE Presbyterian Church in Singapore has put up for sale a large 9,445 square metre (101,662 square foot) site in the Telok Kurau area.
The church said in a statement yesterday that the sale by tender is part of its strategy to unlock the value of selected properties to support the financial needs of the church, as well as its missions and school ministries.

CB Richard Ellis has been appointed marketing agent for the site which is at 116 Lorong J, Telok Kurau and 119 Lorong K, Telok Kurau. The legal owner is the Trustees of the Presbyterian Church in Singapore Registered.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority has granted an Outline Permission for the construction of a five-storey condominium development with a plot ratio of 1.4.

The development site is located a short drive away from Parkway Parade, East Coast Park and education institutions such as Tao Nan School (Primary) and Victoria Junior College.

Developers have the option to purchase the site with a leasehold tenure of 105 years or 999 years commencing Jan 26, 1939.

CBRE pegged the guide price at $40 million or about $607 per square foot per plot ratio.
 
Development charge is estimated at $46.44 million for a condominium development.

Under the Master Plan 2003, the site is zoned civic and community institution. Other potential uses are strata landed housing development or civic, community and cultural development. These uses incur a lower development charge.

Potential uses will, however, be subject to evaluation by the competent authority.

But for a condominium development, the developer can build about 118 units assuming an average size of 1,200 square feet each. The tender exercise closes at 3 pm on April 30, 2008.
Source : Business Times - 27 March 2008

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Foreigner factor in Singapore property here to stay

Foreigner factor in Singapore property here to stay

Rising rents, influx of foreign talent set to spur demand for homes, say analysts
By KALPANA RASHIWALA

THE attraction to foreigners of buying a non-landed home in Singapore isn’t expected to wane in the mid- to longer-term, say property experts.
 
 
Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of research (SE Asia) Chua Yang Liang expects the ratio of foreign buying to be maintained in the short term - because of sub-prime uncertainty - but to increase moderately in the medium to longer term.

‘A key factor is that residential rents have moved up quite a fair bit, and the low interest rate environment will encourage more foreigners and PRs (living here) to consider taking up home ownership,’ he added. This, of course, is assuming that they can get loans.

Another factor that will contribute to the trend is the government’s policy of encouraging more immigration into Singapore to power the Republic’s economic growth, say market watchers.

Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that non-PR foreign investors were last year a major buying force especially in the Core Central Region (CCR), drawn by the story of Singapore’s transformation into a global city and its ambitions to be a hub in many fields - including financial, healthcare, education, R&D.

‘The implication is that Singapore’s property prices, especially in CCR, will be more affected by events in the rest of the world such as the sub-prime crisis which is now unfolding.

‘But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. If the situation worsens overseas and international investors view Singapore as a safe haven, that could draw more foreign funds to the local property market, especially in the CCR,’ Mr Ow reckons.

‘Increasingly, we may see more foreigners who will be able to afford properties in CCR. That also explains why some high-end residential developers are feeling pretty confident that prices will not slide in the luxury tier, as demand is being supported by foreign investors looking for a place to park their monies,’ Mr Ow said.

A 12 percentage-point slide in Singaporean buyers’ share of private apartments/condo purchases in the Outside Central Region - which covers mass-market suburban locations, the staple of Singaporean upgraders - between 2000 and 2007 revealed in JLL’s study may have implications on that perpetual Singaporean dream - of upgrading to a private condo.

‘The authorities may have to ramp up supply of the high-end of public housing, like the Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS), and executive condos (ECs) to cater to local home buyers,’ Mr Ow suggests.

ECs are condominium housing that have resale and other restrictions in the first 10 years, while DBSS are public housing flats designed, built and sold by private sector developers.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah also says these housing types will help meet the aspirations of Singaporeans who feel priced out of private housing. ‘There’s a right product for everybody. We must understand that in a global economy, there is open competition. We must embrace meritocracy. Anybody can buy the product if they can pay. To survive, Singapore must keep attracting the best.’

Source : Business Times - 27 March 2008

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Wait-and-see stand in property plays

Wait-and-see stand in property plays

The impact of the US economy would play a big part in deciding the course of the property market here this year, says CHUA CHOR HOON

PROPERTY markets in Asia-Pacific were largely insulated from the US sub-prime fallout last year, basking in strong economic growth and sustained demand.
 
Hong Kong (above) and Singapore are still attractive despite higher prices and rentals because of their more developed infrastructure and connectivity.
Going into 2008, market conditions appear stable and the region’s economies are holding up well. Still, much will depend on how the problems in the United States play out.

With the attraction of lower prices and growth opportunities, investor interest in regional property was high last year. This translated into investments worth US$118 billion for Asia-Pacific. Singapore attracted the highest quantum of investments, followed by Australia.

Singapore’s investment sales last year stood at a record $41.5 billion, 68 per cent more than in 2006. In the first nine months alone, sales had already surpassed that of 2006 by 38 per cent. This was due mainly to the robust economy, good property market performance and active collective sales in the first half of 2007. Although there was a 30 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline in investment activity in the fourth quarter of 2007, local factors seemed to hold more sway in investment decisions than the US sub-prime crisis.

For example, in the office sector, prices of prime space in Raffles Place have more than doubled, leading to yield compression. In the residential sector, prices in prime districts have also risen more than 50 per cent. The withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme added to the cautious mood.

Collective sales, which drove the investment market in the first half of 2007, also slowed due to a tightening of regulations which lengthened the process of putting a development up for tender.

Among Asian countries, Singapore’s office rental grew the most due to strong demand, mainly from the financial sector, coupled with limited supply. Hong Kong and Shanghai were the next strongest markets. Prime residential rentals in Singapore saw the biggest jumps too, due to high expatriate demand amid a reduction in supply as many developments in the prime districts underwent collective sales. In contrast, prices of luxury units in Kuala Lumpur and Shanghai fell due to oversupply. Retail rentals were stable for most Asian countries, except for Shanghai which saw tremendous growth of almost 120 per cent. Singapore’s prime retail rents rose moderately by 6.6 per cent.

2008 outlook

For now, market conditions seem stable and most of the Asia-Pacific economies are holding up well. However, if the sub-prime fallout persists and the US and European Union economies continue to slow, both export-driven economies and tertiary economies will be affected. The GDP growth rates for the Asian countries are forecast to fall slightly, with the exception of Thailand which is likely to see better GDP growth now that the elections are over. In the Asia-Pacific region, China and India are expected to be most immune to the sub-prime crisis as they have strong domestic demand to buffer the fall in export demand.

There is evidence that European and US funds are directing their attention to this region where they see growth opportunities in countries such as China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore. With rising affluence and a wealthier middle class, there is strong domestic demand for housing in China, India and Vietnam. Vietnam’s official accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 will pave the way for a more open market economy and attract more foreign investments. Thailand’s property market has not risen as much as other Asian markets in the last two years due to its political situation and prices are relatively attractive.

Hong Kong and Singapore are still attractive despite higher prices and rentals because of their more developed infrastructure and connectivity. On the other hand, some Asian funds are also looking at Europe and US now that their prices have become more competitive.

On the whole, there is increasing investor interest from Japan, Korea, China and the Middle East. The Japanese are reviewing options to lift restrictions for Japan real estate investment trusts (J-Reits) to invest in overseas real estate. The rise of sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East will also contribute to the investment market.

The fundamentals supporting the Singapore property market are strong, with low interest rates and many exciting events and economic investments coming on stream. These would bring in more tourists and jobs. However, for the moment, many property investors and developers are adopting a wait-and-see stance. Developers in Singapore are holding back launches and some funds are holding off making investments at least for the first half of 2008, before the extent of the slowdown in the US economy and its impact globally are clearer.

The impact of the US economy would therefore play a big part in deciding the course of the property market this year. Although fundamentals are strong, sentiment plays a big part.

Nevertheless, there is a silver lining to the caution brought about by the sub-prime problem. Many property markets around the world are in bubble territory on the back of strong economic performance and many investors are getting carried away with the notion that prices will keep rising. If the sub-prime woes had happened later, prices and rentals would have continued to rise. And any fall, happening much later in the property cycle, would have been more painful.

Chua Chor Hoon is senior director at DTZ Research, Singapore

Source : Business Times - 27 March 2008

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