How Amoebas in EDB shape Singapore future

How Amoebas in EDB shape Singapore future

Teams learn to dream, experiment and seek out opportunities
By RONNIE LIM
Dreaming up opportunities for long-term growth - this is what the so-called ‘Amoeba’ teams within the Economic Development Board (EDB) do, as officers across departments form small task forces to experiment on projects for 90 days.
‘This is outside their normal duties. In some ways, it’s like 3M, where staff can spend 20 per cent of their time in areas of interest they are passionate about. So we want to foster this culture and create the systems to allow this,’ says Beh Swan Gin, EDB’s assistant MD for planning & policy. Singapore’s economics landscape ten years from now could be influenced by some of these experiments, said Dr Beh, who gave insights into how EDB grapples with the present and future.

EDB’s Amoeba team concept - named by chairman Lim Siong Guan after microscopic life forms which are ultimate shape-shifters - was started just last year.

Already, some of the teams have come up with a few possible new growth areas, Dr Beh says, while refusing to go into detail. ‘So that’s the dreaming part of it,’ he says of his job.

The EDB as a whole has to look at three time frames. One is the short term - the next one year. ‘We always have to think about the projects we are working on, and negotiating. . .what are the challenges we face, like rising housing costs. We work closely with investors to try to find solutions,’ says Dr Beh.

Next come the mid-term issues. ‘Take the example of the chemicals industry. What are some of the things we need to look out for and pursue, so that in 3-5 years’ time some of these may be in place? The recent Shell and ExxonMobil cracker investments are the fruits of work started many years ago. We have to think what next to do so this industry can grow.’

Thirdly, the long-term: 5-10 years. ‘This is where we gaze out and say what are the things we need to do today to pre-position ourselves . . . For example, five years ago, we started to look at environmental engineering as an opportunity, and today we are seeing the early results.’

‘So EDB as a whole has to think of all this, and my focus will be more the 5 to 10-year frame,’ Dr Beh says.

His portfolio, he says, covers three aspects. One is to predict what the operating environment could look like 5-10 years out, what the competitors are doing, and whether this means threats or opportunities.

‘The second aspect will be to look at some of our policies with regard to human capital, to physical infrastructure, and financial/tax incentives we need to put in place to pre-position ourselves or to contend with the threat,’ he says.

‘Here, EDB is more an advocate.’ It apprises the various agencies and ministries on what the industry needs. ‘It may involve getting universities to introduce new courses, or JTC to create projects like Biopolis and Jurong Island.’

The third aspect is ‘more organisational planning matters like performance measurements, and organisational excellence issues - focusing on EDB’s ability to carry out what we want to execute’, Dr Beh says.

His policy & planning group has 120 staff to help in all this, including carrying out more mundane, nevertheless important, matters like collating monthly manufacturing statistics and annual industry output data.

Dr Beh stressed that economic planning here is also a ‘whole-of-government approach’ as his group works with other agencies on issues such as manpower planning, training and what job skills will be required in five years’ time.

‘At this time, however, demand for skilled labour exceeds supply. We are fortunate because we have managed to attract many international talents. So long as we can maintain a core of Singaporeans, having a diversity of foreign talents means benefits will outweigh cost . . . but we want to have a fine balance,’ he stressed.

So what will Singapore’s economic landscape look like in 10 years? ‘If there’s one thing we’ve learnt - and Koh Boon Hwee (deputy chairman of EDB’s International Advisory Council) reminds us ever so often - never say which industries are the sunset industries,’ Dr Beh laughs.

‘But we will really focus on our capital, knowledge and innovation-intensive industries. Reasons? All three offer us attributes totally aligned with what Singapore can offer investors and also what Singapore wants.’ These criteria can be used to assess if Singapore wants to pursue certain industries.

On EDB’s just-announced plans to explore three new business growth areas - urban solutions; health, wellness and ageing; and lifestyle products and services for the broad middle class - Dr Beh said EDB harnesses opportunities stemming from Singapore’s own needs.

‘For instance, Singapore needed a solution for its water needs and has been a test bed for water technology which other cities also need, and companies are working with us to pursue opportunities.’

Urban solutions - like pollution control, traffic management, and clean water and energy - will become increasingly essential as ‘from 50 per cent currently, 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in cities come 2030′, Dr Beh adds.
Source : Business Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Analysts lower estimates after another bleak day - Singapore

Analysts lower estimates after another bleak day - Singapore

Key resistance levels pitched down as panic selling persists
By LYNETTE KHOO

(SINGAPORE) If Monday was the day when fear stalked the markets, then yesterday saw a phase when it took a firmer hold. There was no let-up in the selling frenzy and bourses around Asia bled for the second straight day with the ‘R’ word very much in the frame.

Hours before the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in the US, fear of a US economic recession saw investors in Asia diving for cover. Many equity analysts here have started revising their market estimates for 2008 - mostly downwards.

The Singapore stock market was by no means the worst hit yesterday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped another 8.65 per cent yesterday, while the Jakarta Composite sank 7.7 per cent and the Shanghai Composite fell 7.22 per cent. In contrast, the revamped Straits Times Index slipped 50.6 points or 1.73 per cent to 2,866.55 at the end of the day. At one point it appeared headed for a steeper fall, having slumped 5.84 per cent during intra-day trading, before being propped up by a late-afternoon rebound. But most analysts believed that it was a technical bounce rather than a signal of bottoming out.

In less than four months, the STI has shed 26 per cent off its record high of 3,875.77 points achieved last October. Analysts are now re-doing their forecasts.

Gabriel Yap of DMG & Partners cut his end-2008 STI target to 3,568 points from 3,875. He fears that even after the worst of the selling is over, a bearish market sentiment could still persist.
Even after the worst of the selling is over, a bearish market sentiment could still persist.

Some analysts are also lowering their baseline estimates for the STI after the index breached the support line of 3,000 points on Monday - a level that now becomes a key resistance level from a technical point of view.

DBS retail market strategist Yeo Kee Yan revised his baseline estimate to 2,650 points from 3,000, while UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith cut his STI baseline estimate from 3,000 points to a long-term support line at the 2,760 mark.

Mr Yeo now advises that investors enter the market when the STI hits 2,650 points, down from his earlier recommendation to ‘buy at 3,000-3,100 and sell at 3,700-4,000′. Mr Ajith expects the STI to trade at 2,700-3,600 points rather than an earlier estimate of 2,960-3,900 points.

‘As it stands, valuations are already at depressed levels. We recommend selective bottom-fishing,’ Mr Ajith said.

He noted that although the jury is still out on whether the US economy is entering a recession, the market is already selling ahead of the release of some key economic data.

‘The question is whether one should even wait for two quarters, as a technical recession is simply two consecutive quarters of contraction,’ Mr Ajith said. From the looks of it, ‘the market is not waiting’, he added.

Speaking to BT before the US central bank acted, analysts had indicated that its moves would be critical. ‘If (Federal Reserve chairman) Ben Bernanke follows or indicates, like Greenspan, to bring interest rates down to one per cent, then a deep recession can be avoided,’ said Mr Yap of DMG.

But he said he did not expect the ‘Asian Crisis ghost to come haunt us’ - a period between Oct 7, 1997 and Sept 27, 1998 when the STI dropped 58 per cent from 1,921 to 801.

He advocates trading stocks that have been sold down indiscriminately, particularly those that have dropped 40-50 per cent from their recent highs without material changes in their fundamentals.

OCBC Investment Research head Carmen Lee said that she does not have a year-end STI target and is maintaining her ‘overweight’ calls on the oil and gas stocks and defensive stocks, which she believes are safe havens.

In a note released this week, CIMB-GK said it is maintaining a cautious view on the stock market even though valuations are cheap now.

‘Our preferred sectors are telecommunications, transport and multi-industry. Sectors that we advocate avoiding are manufacturing and property,’ it said.

But given the lingering uncertainty in the US economy and sub-prime loan-related writedowns by banks, it is not clear when the market will hit the bottom and how close it is to staging a rebound.

Mr Yeo of DBS said that he believes that the stock market has not hit bottom till investors start to dump even quality shares and trading volume escalates further. If that happens, even the safe haven stocks will get sold-down, he said.

But Mr Yap of DMG said that a technical bounce could start just as quickly as the market had corrected. ‘We are close to hitting the bottom simply due to the rapidity at which we have fallen,’ he added. ‘In terms of magnitude, we are another 8 per cent from the worst of the lows we have seen so far from corrections in the past 30 years. In terms of speed, this is the fastest ever in the past 30 years.’

Providing a contrarian view was Wong Sui Jau, general manager of Fundsupermart, who believes that now is a good time to enter the market. He is looking at a longer investment timeframe and also believes that the fundamentals are still in place.

‘The market is oversold,’ Mr Wong said. ‘Whether this is the bottom or not, at the current levels, I would expect gains for those buying in now and holding for two years or more.’
Source : Business Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Dramatic 75 basis point cut in US rates - US

Dramatic 75 basis point cut in US rates - US

As markets reel, US central bank says it stands ready to act again; its next scheduled meeting is in a week’s time
By ANDREW MARKS

NEW YORK CORRESPONDENT
IN A stunning response to the panic that triggered two days of frightening sell-offs on world stock markets, the US central bank yesterday slashed interest rates by a dramatic 75 basis points.

US financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households, says the Fed.

The historic move, made shortly before the opening bell of the New York stock market, is the biggest single cut since the US Federal Reserve used the short-term rate as a principal monetary policy instrument around 1990. It is also the first time that the central bank has cut rates in an emergency session since 2001 after the attack on the New York World Trade Center towers.

The Fed’s accompanying statement to the cut in interest rates to 3.5 per cent was brief and to the point:

‘The (Federal Open Market Committee) took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labour markets.’

Wall Street responded in equally dramatic but mixed fashion, as futures markets on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been down more than 500 points an hour before the stock market opened here, quickly cut those losses to the equivalent of a 100-point opening decline.

Within fifteen minutes, however, all the major US stock market indexes were plunging again. When the bell sounded to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the blue chip Dow Jones index registered a 350-point, or 3.5 per cent, plunge that was pared down to 293 points, or 2.5 per cent five minutes later. By 11am New York time when The Business Times went to print, losses were further narrowed to 136 points as the Dow stood at 11,963.39.

Speaking just moments before the opening bell, John Canavan, market analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, said that he believed that the immediate impact of the Fed’s big move is questionable.

‘Futures initially broke higher when the Fed’s announcement came out, but they quickly fell back… That’s the market telling us that no one believes there’s a quick fix solution to the dangers and turmoil facing the US economy at the moment,’ he said.

In its statement, the Fed made clear that it is not done with interest rate cuts. It stated: ‘Appreciable downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.’

Traders were already wondering when the next Fed interest rate cut might occur. ‘The FOMC sent a clear message that it’s not done after this 75 basis point cut. The anticipation of aggressive action should serve as somewhat of a counterpoint to the fears of what a recession in the US will do to the world’s markets,’ said Ryan, Beck chief investment strategist Joe Battipaglia.

‘It’s going to take some time, but the economy and the market will come back,’ he added.

When that comeback might be is certain to keep investors awake at night for many weeks to come. ‘We live in interesting times for better and for worse, and this is definitely one of the worst,’ said Mr Canavan. ‘There is no quick fix here. I expect we’ll see building support in the second half of the year as the Fed continues to cut rates, probably down to three per cent or lower.’

But he added: ‘There are so many wildcards out there right now, it’s impossible to make any predictions.’ The biggest wildcard is how consumer spending will be impacted in the second half of the year by the housing market slump, he said. ‘And until we know how that works out, we’re going to be stuck in a cycle of fear and hope.’

Source : Business Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Panic and fear, not fundamentals, driving sharp market sell down - New York

Panic and fear, not fundamentals, driving sharp market sell down - New York

Widespread selling creating financial violence people hope to avoid, analysts say
WHO’S PANICKING: ‘What you see is not a panic of the public, but a panic of the sophisticated. This will have a tremendous impact on the public. It’s very serious.’ - MR JAMES SINCLAIR, a well-known gold trader

NEW YORK - THE fear is spreading.
For months now, investors have been lured to overseas markets with the promise that surging growth and solid economic fundamentals in Asia and the Middle East would insulate them from the credit squeeze plaguing the United States market.

But the broad international sell-off yesterday and Monday has raised fresh concerns that a looming recession and the fallout from sub-prime mortgages could have global repercussions.

Some analysts saw the sell-off, with leading stock market indexes off 4 per cent to 8 per cent worldwide, as being driven by fear more than by fact.

‘I don’t think it’s warranted by the fundamentals,’ said Mr Edward Yardeni, an independent strategist. ‘The global economy’s resilience in the face of a credit crunch has been impressive.’

Mr Yardeni warned, however, that in a time of panic and fear, less attention is paid to fundamentals, like a fairly tight US job market and strong growth and the extraordinary build-up of foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets. The result is panic selling and the prospect of a global recession.
‘I don’t think it’s warranted by the fundamentals. The global economy’s resilience in the face of a credit crunch has been impressive.’ - MR EDWARD YARDENI, an independent strategist

‘People are creating the financial violence that they hoped to avoid,’ he said.

Other analysts point out that the overseas uncertainty reflects the unpleasant, if not devastating, reality that the excesses of the long-running credit boom will not go away soon.

What makes this correction more dangerous, they say, is that the selling is not being driven by panicky retail investors, as it was in the collapse of the technology bubble, but by hedge funds and investment banks that find themselves saddled with illiquid securities backed by an array of valueless assets.

‘What you see is not a panic of the public. This is a panic of the sophisticated,’ said Mr James Sinclair, a well-known gold trader who oversees a financial website and who has warned investors for years about the dangers of derivatives.

‘But this will have a tremendous impact on the public. It’s very serious, and drastic emergency economic action is needed.’

Most retail investors have not invested directly in the complex securities that have ruined the reputations of some of Wall Street’s most-respected minds.

Their exposure, however, to plummeting companies like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, and now a broader basket of stocks affected by the market malaise, will add to the sense of wealth erosion that many are already feeling from the declining values of their houses.

On his blog, JSMineSet, Mr Sinclair has told his readers that as much as US$450 trillion (S$649 trillion) worth of derivatives could disintegrate, leading to a far greater and, in some ways, unpredictable calamity.

He argued that compared with the savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s, when the formation of a trust company for beaten-down institutions established a floor for sinking assets, the inability of the government to form a similar entity for suffering securities had heightened investors’ unease.

While the views of Mr Sinclair, who expects the price of gold to go to US$1,650, up from about US$870 now, might be taken with a grain of salt, other experts have also begun to warn of the dire consequences of the credit market collapse.

Mr Christopher Wood, a strategist based in Asia who publishes a widely read newsletter called Greed & Fear, pointed out in a note published this weekend that the potential insolvency of bond insurers like Ambac, MBIA and ACA Capital signals a larger market correction that has not yet been grasped by policymakers.

‘Greed & Fear’s view is that with the bond insurance business model fast unwinding, a full-scale crisis could be coming,’ he wrote.

The international selling has also stoked a long-held fear that flush Asian and Middle Eastern central banks and government-

backed investment funds will cut back on their US dollar-based investments - like Treasury bills and stakes in troubled investment banks - in the face of another round of interest rate cuts and continued weakness in the dollar.

These flows have been a crucial source of liquidity for an economy that produces little of its own domestic savings, and they have been lifelines for capital-starved banks. But no money manager, regardless of how long the timeframe, likes to invest in a falling market, and analysts fear that a spate of additional write-downs and market turmoil will signal to foreigners that the markets in Asia have not yet found their bottom.

One large investor, who asked not to be identified because he did not want to tip his hand, said the sell-off on Monday was a direct response to the stimulus package proposed by the Bush administration - not so much a judgment that the proposal was inadequate as a reflection of the weakness and drift of the world’s largest economy.

‘It is one thing to see the market go from 14,000 to 12,000,’ he said. ‘But when the president of the United States says we are sick, you can’t ignore that.’

NEW YORK TIMES

Source : Straits Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Singapore Govt rejects Aljunied site bid; offers flood Jalan Sultan plot

Singapore Govt rejects Aljunied site bid; offers flood Jalan Sultan plot

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter & Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent
ONSTREAM: The Straits Trading building will compete with sites introduced last year as a quick relief to the office space crunch.

THE Government has decided not to sell a short-term office site in Aljunied because the sole bid that came in last week offered too low a price.
This decision follows a recent string of lower-than-expected offers for state land and is the first time since 2001 that the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has rejected bids for a government-owned site.

Demand for some commercial land, however, appears to still be going strong. A state parcel at Jalan Sultan, reserved for office or hotel use, received 20 offers when its tender closed yesterday, the URA announced.

The top bid came from Chiu Teng Estates. It offered $14.8 million, or $973.60 per sq ft (psf) of gross floor area, almost double the lowest bid, from NYP Holdings, of $8 million.

The Jalan Sultan site, comprising 17 two-storey conservation shophouses that have to be restored, also got offers from Fragrance Group, Hotel Royal and Hind Lifestyle.

This compares to the single bid for the Aljunied office site, submitted by Mezzo Development, at $7.8 million - just $38.37 psf of gross floor area.

Property consultants say the market may have reached a saturation point for transitional office sites, introduced last year as a quick relief to the office space crunch.

Any development built on these short-term sites is likely to be completed only next year or in 2010, when they will have to compete with a slew of new office space set to come onstream, they added.

One such building is the new $60 million Straits Trading block in Battery Road. The 28-storey building is expected to be completed late next year and could fetch high rents of $18 psf, analysts estimate.

Average rents of Grade A blocks in Raffles Place are now $16.64 psf, said Colliers International. The old Straits Trading building fetched rents of $7 psf.

Mainboard-listed Straits Trading, which owns the building, brushed aside worries that it would be affected by a possible office oversupply that could emerge after 2010.

‘If there’s an oversupply, our building will be out before that,’ said president and chief executive Norman Ka Cheung Ip.

Source : Straits Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Hard choice for Lippo with surprise bid for Singapore Robinson stake

Hard choice for Lippo with surprise bid for Singapore Robinson stake

Indonesian group can either sell its shares, keep them or submit a counterproposal

By Lee Su Shyan, Assistant Money Editor

LIPPO Group, the No. 1 shareholder of Robinson & Co, seems to be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea in the face of a surprise offer from Dubai- based Al Futtaim.
Lippo president and Robinson deputy chairman Stephen Riady told The Straits Times the offer was unexpected. Lippo is evaluating the offer and its options, he said.

In 2006, Lippo created a stir at Robinson and its loyal customer base with a bold $203 million purchase of a 29.9 per cent stake in the 150-year-old retailer.

The old guard at Robinson’s board was squeezed out, as the Indonesian group sought to make its mark. Now, the boot might be on the other foot.

Mr Riady did not spell out Lippo’s options in addressing the offer, but market watchers say the group has three main choices: sell the shares, keep them or make a counterbid.

Selling may make sense. Some observers note Lippo has built up a name in the property sector - developing various condominiums and redeveloping two properties near Collyer Quay. It bought $681 million in collective-sale sites last year. Retail-wise, however, the jury is still out on Lippo.

Robinson has expanded to Kuala Lumpur and brought in new brands, but these have not been runaway successes. Lippo also has not done much to capitalise on its Robinson stake to promote its own Indonesian retailer, Matahari, or vice-versa.

Certainly, Lippo has heavy commitments on the property front. The $537 million cash offer from Dubai works out to $160 million for Lippo - a sum that may well come in handy.

One thing, however, may hold Lippo back from accepting Al Futtaim’s offer: It would be absorbing a loss.

In 2006, it bought its stake from OCBC Bank and Great Eastern Holdings for $7.90 a share.

The offer is $6.25. Adjusted for dividends received since it took its stake, Lippo would stand to get about $7.68, which would still fall short of what it paid less than two years ago.

So, if Lippo just sits tight, Al Futtaim will need to cross the 50 per cent threshold without its help. It already has 23.19 per cent in the bag, pledged by Silchester International, Aberdeen Asset Management Asia and Tecity.

Robinson’s shareholders, though, include many retail investors, making it more tedious to amass a large percentage quickly.

If Al Futtaim fails to cross 50 per cent, it will not have to buy the 23.19 per cent from the investors and everything returns to status quo - good news for Lippo.

The only fly in the ointment is that in such rocky markets, investors will be tempted, as $6.25 is still 40 per cent better than the share price just before the offer was made.

If so, Lippo could very easily go from being a controlling shareholder to being No. 2, with very little say in Robinson’s affairs. As Lim and Tan Securities put it, Lippo could end up ‘locked in’.

The third strategy could see Lippo making a counterbid if it really wants to keep Robinson.

The irony would be having to fork out a few hundred million dollars to control a company it is already controlling, having spent only $200 million.

Of course, if Lippo is sure that Al Futtaim is dead set on Robinson, it could put in a higher bid. Al Futtaim would have to raise its bid, allowing Lippo to exit gracefully, with a profit, no less.

Source : Straits Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Recession in US, Europe could shake Asia, Singapore

Recession in US, Europe could shake Asia, Singapore

Region still relies heavily on world’s biggest markets, say economists

By Bryan Lee
CLOUDY SKIES: A contraction in Europe and the US could lower Singapore’s growth as manufacturing as well as trade-related services like transport will be hurt. — PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS

A RECESSION in the United States and Europe would badly hurt Asian economies, including Singapore’s, which still rely heavily on these two export markets for growth, according to economists.
Indeed, analysts at Lehman Brothers believe economic growth in Singapore could slump to as low as 2.5 per cent this year, if the worst-case scenario of a recession occurs. The official forecast is for growth of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Economists said yesterday that while the region’s economies have managed to stand on their own feet in recent years, their fortunes are still closely tied to external conditions.

Most economists are maintaining forecasts for a more benign slowdown, but they concede that risks of a severe downturn are on the rise.

‘We are probably only one shock away from the US economy tipping into a recession,’ said Lehman chief global economist Paul Sheard.

‘One thing that we will be thinking about the next week or so: Are we seeing that one shock now hitting the US economy in the form of this equity market meltdown that is unfolding this week?’
Global share prices have crashed since the start of the year and are accelerating their declines amid rising fears that a US recession may send the world economy into a tailspin.

Earlier theories that Asia’s booming economies are plotting their own destinies and escaping this plight are dissipating fast.

‘We don’t really buy the decoupling idea in its strong form,’ said Dr Sheard, adding that it is very unlikely that demand from Asia and other emerging markets can offset a slowdown in the US and Europe.

Singapore is especially vulnerable, given its small and open economy, said Mr Robert Subbaraman, who heads Lehman’s economic research for Asia, excluding Japan.

He believes overall Asian growth this year could fall by 4.5 percentage points from last year’s 8.7 per cent, if the rest of the world goes into recession. Singapore’s growth could come down to between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent, he said.

For the moment, Mr Subbaraman is still hoping that aggressive US interest rate cuts will avert a recession to support a 5.3 per cent growth in Singapore and a 7.6 per cent expansion in the region.

This scenario, however, brings risks of an overheating economy, as foreign capital inflows drive up inflation to form possible asset bubbles in the region, he warned.

United Overseas Bank economist Ho Woei Chen said a US recession would hit Singapore’s export sector very hard.

‘Although exports to China have increased, enddemand is largely still in the US,’ he said.

Citigroup economist Chua Hak Bin said a 1-percentage-point reduction in US growth would cut Singapore growth by 1.7 percentage points.

He said a contraction in the US and Europe could lower Singapore growth from his current forecast of 5.6 per cent to between 3 per cent and 4 per cent. ‘Ultimately, manufacturing will be hit, as well as trade-related services such as wholesale and transport.’

Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho, though, is much more sanguine.

He tips Singapore growth at 6.5 per cent this year, purely on the strength of the domestic economy.

‘We already expect exports to contribute very little to growth,’ he said, pointing out that last year’s strong growth came amid a weak export performance.

Instead, private consumption, fuelled by record tourist arrivals and investments in the construction sector, should provide a buffer.

Projects, like the integrated resorts, are highly unlikely to be disrupted, while the record new manufacturing investments that Singapore won last year will provide support, Mr Leong said.

‘We have never entered a US recession from such a strong position. We are going into this with good quality, broad-based growth.’

Closely tied fortunes

Economists are quickly scrubbing earlier theories that Asia is decoupling from the United States economy. They now concede that while the region’s economies have managed to stand on their own feet in recent years, their fortunes are still closely tied to the economic well-being of the US and Europe.

Singapore is especially vulnerable, according to one senior economist. Economic growth in the Republic is tipped to slump to as low as 2.5 per cent from an official forecast of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho, though, is unperturbed. He tips growth at 6.5 per cent, saying Singapore will be facing a possible US recession with ‘good quality, broad-based growth’.
Source : Straits Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

No entry to Singapore casinos for 28,000 people

No entry to Singapore casinos for 28,000 people

Third-party exclusion scheme follows suggestions made by gambling watchdog

ABOUT 28,000 people who are either undischarged bankrupts or on the Government’s public assistance scheme will not be allowed to enter casinos here.
The Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports announced this yesterday, adhering to suggestions first made public by the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) in December 2006.

As part of its suggestions, the NCPG then suggested that social workers play a very active role in this.

It suggested that once someone makes an application - via e-mail, by post or in person - social workers will verify, and where applicable, support or dismiss the request.

The Ministry said it was working with the gambling watchdog to work out the mechanics of this ‘third-party exclusion’ scheme which will be administered under the Casino Control Act.

The Act was passed in February 2006 to govern the setting up of casinos here.

The act empowers the NCPG to issue ‘exclusion orders’ to bar certain people from entering casinos.

Under the voluntary self-exclusion scheme, the council and casino operators can bar a person from entering a casino at his or her own request.

Family members who fear that one of their loved ones is in danger of becoming a gambling addict can also apply to get that person barred under the ‘family exclusion’ scheme.

The NCPG in its suggested framework said that family applications in particular may be very complex.

Social workers can then be called in to mediate, get the help of other agencies or coax the gambler to own up to his problem and in some cases volunteer to have himself banned.

Training has also been stepped up over the past two years to prepare social workers on dealing with pathological gamblers.

The council said that it was considering setting up its own full-time pool of social workers.

Separately, in Parliament yesterday, Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports Dr Vivian Balakrishnan gave an update on two pilot counselling initiatives providing intervention services for problem gamblers and their families.

In a written reply to a question from NMP Associate Professor Kalyani Mehta, he said the pilot centres opened in September 2006 by Thye Hua Kwan Moral Society and Care Corner Counselling Centre form the second level in a three tier system.

The first tier consists of detection and referrals from ‘ground’ organisations like family service centres and community development councils.

The third tier covers medical and psychiatric treatment at the Institute of Mental Health (IMH).

At the two pilot centres, a total of 190 problem gamblers were seen over a year from September 2006 to September last year, and nearly all (93 per cent) were men.

The data also revealed that more than half were married, aged between 30 and 49 and earned between $1,000 and $2,999 a month.

Dr Balakrishnan added that of those who have ended their treatment, about one third went through it successfully. The remaining did not return to the centres for further help or felt that they no longer needed counselling.

‘This indeed is a challenge faced in addiction intervention work,’ said the minister.

He added that the NCPG and IMH are working with the recently appointed International Advisory Panel on gambling addiction experts to enhance counselling and treatment for problem gamblers and their families.

Source : Straits Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

Budget carriers upbeat despite jolt to economy -Singapore

Budget carriers upbeat despite jolt to economy  -Singapore

Their big worry? Not a lack of passengers, but not getting enough planes

By Karamjit Kaur, Aviation Correspondent

THE opening of the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur route to budget airlines next month is good news for Asia’s low-cost carriers, which expect strong growth this year, even in the face of a global economic slowdown.
Aviation pundits and airline chiefs yesterday hailed the liberalisation of one of Asia’s most protected markets - the first step towards freer skies over Asean, which would benefit the budget carriers that have mushroomed in the region in recent years. They were meeting at Suntec Convention Centre for the annual Asia Pacific Low Cost Airline Congress.

The question now before them was whether a recession - which will cast a global pall if it hits the United States - will rain on the parade.

Chief executive officer of Singapore-based Tiger Airways, Mr Tony Davis, said he was none too worried.

He told reporters on the sidelines of the conference that in an economic slump, if people ‘are nervous about expenditure, if they are nervous about their job security, if they are nervous about economic conditions, they are more likely to go to a budget carrier’.

What does worry low-cost carriers is that buoyant demand for new aircraft will make it tough for them to get the planes they need to support growth plans.

The order books for plane makers Boeing and Airbus have been solid for the next few years, and leasing planes is also becoming more expensive, said Mr Patee Sarasin, chief executive officer of Thailand’s Nok Air.

For now, all eyes are on Singapore-KL.

From Feb 1, Tiger Airways, Jetstar Asia and AirAsia will start flying between Singapore and KL, a sector now dominated by Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Malaysia Airlines (MAS).

The low-cost carriers will start with four daily return flights, injecting about 5,000 more round-trip seats a week into the market, or a quarter of SIA’s and MAS’ combined capacity.

In December, restrictions on their number of flights will be lifted; the same deadline has also been set for unlimited flights between the 10 Asean capitals.

Mr Carmelo Arcilla, executive director of the Philippine Civil Aeronautics Board, said in a panel session at the congress, that while he backed the principle of freer skies, it was also important to have laws in place so bigger carriers do not take to unfair practices to dominate the market.

Like others, Mr Davis and Jetstar chief executive officer, Ms Chong Phit Lian, are confident the grossly under-served market will grow with gains to be shared all round.

It is about giving the consumer choice, said Ms Chong.

For example, Tiger will fly to the budget terminals at Changi Airport and Kuala Lumpur International Airport, while Jetstar will operate out of the main terminals.

Ms Chong believes this will put her airline one up against the competition, especially when it comes to luring the business traveller.

Mr Davis disagrees: ‘It will come down to price… If you have the lowest fares, you can always stimulate demand.’

Source : Straits Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com

No need for white cards to enter Malaysia - SIngapore

No need for white cards to enter Malaysia  - SIngapore

In trial run at Causeway and Second Link, necessary data is taken off passports instead
NOT OUT YET: The imigration cards are still required at other entry points such as airports.

TRAVELLERS entering Malaysia at the Causeway and Second Link were surprised by a change there last weekend.
They did not need to fill up those white immigration cards any more. They needed only to get their passports stamped by Malaysian immigration officials as proof of entry.

A new visitor screening system, whose trial run began quietly on Saturday, reads the necessary data, such as name, nationality and validity of passport, off the traveller’s passport itself. This does away with the need for Malaysian officials to process tens of thousands of those cards.

Besides personal information, the cards - filled in by hand - also asked for the traveller’s address while in Malaysia and declarations on currencies carried and state of health.

An immigration spokesman with the Malaysian High Commission said the trial may be extended to other entry points, such as Kuala Lumpur International Airport, but did not have information on when this might take place.

Visitors have always had their passports scanned, but the new system reads some of the data immigration officials used to obtain from the white cards. The Malaysian authorities could not say how health data and currency declarations will be collected.

About 250,000 people enter Malaysia via the Causeway daily, and another 30,000 use the Second Link. About half are foreigners who had to fill in the white cards.

The immigration spokesman said yesterday: ‘What they should be confident of is that our system will key in their particulars based on the information in their passports.’

Despite temporary confusion over the change at the Causeway and the Second Link last weekend, immigration clearance went smoothly, he said.

Among the travellers caught off-guard was Ms Hung Meiling, 23. The marketing communications executive said: ‘I came prepared with the white card filled up, but the customs officer just said ‘no need’ and pointed to a notice in Malay, which I could not understand.’

Cheering the new convenience, she added: ‘It does away with the hassle of filling up the cards beforehand and panicking when I realise I don’t have any more of the cards. It’s also a pain to have to keep extra cards just in case.’

Another frequent traveller to Malaysia, Mr Sebastian Lim, 35, usually keeps four cards in his car and another 20 at home. He is playing it safe for now and will hold on to his stash.

He said: ‘I don’t want to be caught in a tricky situation if these cards are needed again.’

Source : Business Times - 23 Jan 2008

Singapore Property - Buy , Sell , Rent , Invest

Mindy Yong

(+65)91002985

mindy@mindyyong.com