Economists’ median growth forecast rises to 7.5%

Economists’ median growth forecast rises to 7.5%

Rosier estimate by 18 analysts is at mid-point of govt’s range of 7% to 8%
By Erica Tay, Economics Correspondent

FORGET recent stock market woes and weak export numbers.
Projections by private-sector economists for Singapore’s full- year economic growth have turned even rosier over the past three months.

A quarterly survey of economists by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) threw up a median forecast of 7.5 per cent full-year growth, up from the 6 per cent in June’s survey.

This puts the latest consensus view right in the middle of the Government’s official 7 to 8 per cent forecast range.

This month’s findings were drawn from forecasts by 18 economists and analysts.

According to the survey results out yesterday, half of those polled predict that economic expansion this year will come in between 7 per cent and 7.9 per cent.

Over a quarter of them are even more bullish, gunning for at least 8 per cent growth.

For the current quarter, the median forecast is for growth of 7.8 per cent year-on-year.

The upbeat predictions come after second-quarter economic growth strongly beat market forecasts.

Despite disappointing export numbers, economic growth in the April-to-June period came in at 8.6 per cent, when the consensus forecast was 6.1 per cent.

The overall performance was lifted by two star sectors - construction and financial services.

Compared to the previous poll, economists now expect the two sectors to chart significantly stronger growth for the year.

The financial services sector is tipped to expand by a median 13.5 per cent this year, up from 10.2 per cent in the last survey.

Meanwhile, according to market consensus, construction would probably grow by 15 per cent this year, instead of the 10 per cent projected previously.

Predictions for manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, as well as private consumption, also turned more bullish, compared to three months ago.

However, consensus forecasts for non-oil domestic exports and the hotels and restaurants business deteriorated.

Economists’ median expectations for consumer price index (CPI) inflation were raised.

They also forecast a lower jobless rate.

‘The CPI inflation forecast for 2007 rose to a median of 1.5 per cent, from the 1.2 per cent reported in the previous survey, while the outlook for the year-end unemployment rate edged down from 2.6 per cent to 2.5 per cent,’ said the MAS survey report.

Looking beyond this year, economists’ median prediction for 2008 economic growth came in at 6.5 per cent, an improvement over 5.8 per cent in the previous poll.
Source : Straits Times - 06 sept 2007

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S’pore varsities can share expertise

S’pore varsities can share expertise

By OH BOON PING
LOCAL universities could help raise standards of governance and share best practices with their regional counterparts, Education Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said yesterday.
They could help in areas ranging from fund-raising to internal governance, he told reporters at the launch of new operations by the Council for Advancement and Support of Education (CASE).

CASE is an international association that provides training, professional development and standards for fund-raising, communications and marketing for colleges and universities.

Mr Shanmugaratnam also touched yesterday on education philanthropy, which the government is encouraging.

He sees philanthropy as an ‘exciting part of Singapore’s education landscape’ in future, with the private sector and family foundations playing a useful role in raising the quality of education.

CASE president John Lippincott said education institutions in Asia ‘are increasingly turning to philanthropic support and seeking broad public understanding to help them accomplish their ambitious goals’.

CASE will organise seminars and programmes on fund-raising, communications, marketing and alumni relations in Asia, and provide books and resources for advancement professionals in Asia, Australia and New Zealand. It will also hold conferences in multiple locations in Asia.

Asked why CASE has set up its Asia-Pacific office here, Mr Lippincott said Singapore stands out for the value it places on education, its strategic location and infrastructure.

‘Last year, we also did a pilot conference where more than 400 people participated, representing over 30 countries,’ he said. ‘So we felt that setting up an office here is timely.’

Yesterday, CASE honoured Prof Shih Choon Fong of the National University of Singapore with a ‘Chief Executive Leadership Award’ for his impact on education and advancement.
Source : Business Times - 06 sept 2007

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En bloc sales slow to a trickle, may pick up later

En bloc sales slow to a trickle, may pick up later
Just one sale sealed in August, but some say lull presents a chance to buy
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) After the breathless rush earlier in the year, there was just a single collective sale in August - that of Margate Mansion at a modest $58 million.
In contrast, the first seven months of 2007 saw a total of 62 collective sale transactions worth about $11.86 billion, based on industry figures compiled by Credo Real Estate. This reflects an average of around nine deals each month, worth almost $1.7 billion between them. The impact of the sub-prime mortgage woes in the US and the stock market rout that followed was obvious.

Credo managing director Karamjit Singh observed that the Singapore property market usually tends to take a breather in the third quarter.

But he expects the pace of collective sale transactions to pick up again in Q4 - assuming that the sub-prime crisis does not escalate further. Still, he does not expect activity to be as intense as in the first seven months of this year, before the current lull set in. ‘Any recovery in land buying would be resuming from a high base. Some developers have already bought sites, so their appetites are satiated and they would need to offload some new projects before they replenish their landbanks,’ Mr Singh added.

CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake expects the number of collective sale transactions to average about two to three per month for the rest of the year. Contributing to this trend are high asking prices on part of the owners and upcoming changes to the en bloc legislation that could lengthen the gestation period before sites can be launched for tender.

Both Mr Lake and Mr Singh believe that benchmark prices may still be achieved for residential land in the months ahead. ‘The critical factor will be how the end-product market fares. If developers see strong home buying at their launches, they will keep replenishing their landbanks. If not, developers may be more selective about their land acquisitions,’ Mr Lake says.

DTZ Debenham Tie Leung director (investment advisory services) Shaun Poh reckons that over the next couple of months one is unlikely to see any benchmark residential land prices being achieved through en bloc sales. He felt that deals were likely to be in the $50 million to $100 million range and the buyers were likely to be smaller developers and contractors.

On a more positive note, Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han felt that the current lull in the collective sales market presented buying opportunities. ‘For investors who’ve missed out on the action earlier, especially international funds, because the pace of transactions was too quick for them to do due diligence, this is the best time to come in and negotiate - on their (buyers’) terms,’ Mr Han added.

Credo’s Mr Singh noted that fundamentals in the property market were still very strong. ‘There’s still an undersupply situation, created by strong home buying since 2005 and exacerbated by the strong wave of en bloc sales which will cause a temporary withdrawal of supply as sites sold through collective sales are redeveloped. International funds are still prepared to invest in Singapore property because this place seems to have some exciting years ahead,’ he said.

Source : Business Times - 06 sept 2007

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