Dengue fever may cause profuse bleeding and lead to death: doctors

Dengue fever may cause profuse bleeding and lead to death: doctors
Posted: 06 July 2007 2109 hrs

SINGAPORE: Of the three victims who have died from dengue fever this year, two have died from what is known as “dengue shock syndrome”.

The condition causes patients to bleed non-stop.

Three weeks ago, 46-year-old Henry Lim was on the brink of death. His nose and gums bled continuously.

“The bleeding did not really stop for two to three days. I was moving around with a piece of tissue right under my nose. You could see all the blood stains on my teeth, gums and lips,” said Mr Lim.

Mr Lim was sent to Alexandra Hospital where he was diagnosed as suffering from dengue fever.

His blood platelet count dropped rapidly, reaching dangerous levels.

Doctors say two to three out of 100 dengue patients will suffer from the same fate.

Said Dr Francis Lee, Head, Emergency Medicine, Alexandra Hospital, “When platelet numbers become very small, their bodies are unable to patch up areas of bleeding and spontaneous bleeding occurs. The gums are really soft… and there’s a tendency to bleed once you brush it.”

If the bleeding is severe, hospitalisation is necessary. But it all depends on the individual’s platelet count.

In Mr Lim’s case, he had to go to hospital everyday to have his platelet count checked.

Once the numbers stabilised, he was allowed to recuperate at home, for two weeks. - CNA/yy
 

Prices for private housing ‘may pass 1996 levels’

Prices for private housing ‘may pass 1996 levels’ 
THE booming property market will drive prices for private housing above the 1996 peak by the middle of next year, according to an HSBC economist.
The bank’s senior Asian economist, Mr Robert Prior-Wandesforde, said yesterday: ‘The real estate market has probably further to run. We may be in some of the earliest stages of a bubble, but there is more for prices to go.

‘The private residential market is nowhere near that of mid-1996, so there is still room (for prices) to appreciate further even if we’re in the early stages of a bubble.’

Industry data that takes into account the prices of private residential properties suggests that levels in real terms are still about 25 per cent below 1996 levels.

Mr Prior-Wandesforde believes that property prices will go higher partly because the ratio of home prices to income is only half that of 1996, wage growth is running at multi-year highs and interest rates are low.

He also cited the speculative activity that is boosting prices.

And while prices in strict number terms may pass 1996 levels soon, once factors including wage levels are accounted for, the real catch-up will be some way off.

‘If I’m right, it will take 12 years to get back to the 1996 level. If you take into account wage and income levels, prices would still be considerably cheaper than during that period,’ said Mr Prior-Wandesforde, referring to private housing.

He also believes that growth in the construction sector will clearly ‘outperform’ gross domestic product growth in the next three to five years.

‘The retrenchment in the construction sector has come to an end,’ he said.

Source : The Straits Times, 07 July 2007

MAS calls for vigilance on possible systemic risks

MAS calls for vigilance on possible systemic risks 
By Arthur Poon 
FINANCIAL institutions and investors should always be vigilant about possible systemic risks, even though the economy, stock market and property sector may look rosy now.
Said Mr Heng Swee Keat, the managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), yesterday: ‘The current benign global environment of low inflation, low risk premiums and low volatility in financial markets has been unusually long. Indeed, it is in times of apparent tranquillity that we need to look for the potential risk areas and plan for contingencies.’

Yesterday, at the inaugural annual conference of the Berkeley-National University of Singapore Risk Management Institute, he also highlighted the danger that investors may not be fully aware of their exposure to a particular type of risk given, for instance, the increasing complexity of financial instruments.

Among other risk concerns raised recently are the huge capital inflows into the region from hedge funds and private equity firms, as well as banks’ growing housing and construction loan portfolios.

‘The surge in capital flows into this region will have to be efficiently managed so that they do not become a source of risk to financial and macroeconomic stability,’ Mr Heng said.

He added that MAS’ challenge as a regulator is to allow capital flows to occur, while ensuring that appropriate risk management practices are in place.

In terms of increased risk exposure to property-related loans, a check of the three local lenders’ first-quarter financials revealed that they have not increased their loans to the building, construction and housing industries significantly as a proportion of total loans.

For instance, United Overseas Bank’s housing loans as a proportion of total loans have increased only marginally from 23.8 per cent as at Dec 31 to 24.3 per cent as at March 31. The figure for building and construction was up 0.4 percentage point to 10.3 per cent.

At OCBC Bank, housing loans actually fell from 29.7 per cent to 28.5 per cent. But building and construction loans rose to 15.6 per cent.

In DBS’ case, both sets of figures fell.
Source : The Straits Times, 07 July 2007

Prices for private housing ‘may pass 1996 levels’

Prices for private housing ‘may pass 1996 levels’ 
THE booming property market will drive prices for private housing above the 1996 peak by the middle of next year, according to an HSBC economist.
The bank’s senior Asian economist, Mr Robert Prior-Wandesforde, said yesterday: ‘The real estate market has probably further to run. We may be in some of the earliest stages of a bubble, but there is more for prices to go.

‘The private residential market is nowhere near that of mid-1996, so there is still room (for prices) to appreciate further even if we’re in the early stages of a bubble.’

Industry data that takes into account the prices of private residential properties suggests that levels in real terms are still about 25 per cent below 1996 levels.

Mr Prior-Wandesforde believes that property prices will go higher partly because the ratio of home prices to income is only half that of 1996, wage growth is running at multi-year highs and interest rates are low.

He also cited the speculative activity that is boosting prices.

And while prices in strict number terms may pass 1996 levels soon, once factors including wage levels are accounted for, the real catch-up will be some way off.

‘If I’m right, it will take 12 years to get back to the 1996 level. If you take into account wage and income levels, prices would still be considerably cheaper than during that period,’ said Mr Prior-Wandesforde, referring to private housing.

He also believes that growth in the construction sector will clearly ‘outperform’ gross domestic product growth in the next three to five years.

‘The retrenchment in the construction sector has come to an end,’ he said.
Source : The Straits Times, 07 July 2007

HDB resale: Sellers’ market or agents’?

HDB resale: Sellers’ market or agents’? 
RECENT newspaper articles have highlighted the sky-high prices of some HDB resale flats, especially those around Tiong Bahru.
When my friends learnt that a five-room flat had been sold for $720,000, their first reaction was: ‘What a lucky seller!’.

My response was: ‘What a lucky agent!’

The seller’s agent usually gets 2 per cent of the price of the flat, while the buyer’s agent pockets 1 per cent.

So why did I envy the agent? Anyone who has responded to a property ad in the classifieds knows that, invariably, the first question asked is: ‘Are you buying for yourself?’

Agents, not unlike taxi drivers, pick their customers. And it is understandable because a seller’s agent who acts for the buyer gets 1 per cent more. In the case of the lucky Tiong Bahru agent, $7,200 more!

The question is, what if there was another buyer willing to pay $750,000 but had his own agent, or refused to use the seller’s agent? Between getting $21,600 in commissions by selling at $720,000 and $15,000 by selling at $750,000, the choice is obvious.

I urge flat sellers to attend HDB’s monthly resale seminar, where they will learn that they do not need an agent to handle the paperwork. HDB will help. Save thousands on commission and get better furniture for the new home.

Recently, my fiancee and I went to view a flat. As our combined income was slightly above the income ceiling for getting a concessionary loan, we told the agent we would appeal. She suggested that we declare only one party’s income, saying that she knew others who had got away with this.

We went on to the topic of price. The agent told us the valuation of the flat was $260,000 and the last offer was $320,000. We bid $290,000 and went home, thinking that was the end of it.

That night, the agent called and informed us that the valuation was actually $255,000 and the last offer was $295,000. ‘$300,000 will seal the deal,’ she enthused.

Luckily we were not flush with cash from selling a private property en bloc. What if we had bid $325,000?

That said, there are property agents with a conscience.

My point is, anyone can handle an HDB resale transaction, and HDB will help you every step of the way.
Chia Kok Chin
 
Source : The Straits Times, 07 July 2007

It’s talent, not property, that is SM’s real worry

It’s talent, not property, that is SM’s real worry

By CHUANG PECK MING (SINGAPORE) The so-called property bubble is a short-term phenomenon - and the government is not too worried about the recent spike in the price of real estate. Nor is it overly concerned about rising costs, as that only reflects a higher standard of living and more income in real terms, according to Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong. Instead, what Mr Goh frets about is how Singapore’s talent pool will grow in the longer term, he told CNBC in an interview broadcast yesterday morning. ‘It’s a longer-term worry. It’s not a short-term worry,’ he said. ‘For Singapore to grow, you need talent, talent from Singaporeans or within Singapore and talent from outside.’ While the property market is currently ‘active’, he said the prices are rising more at the higher end. ‘Prices for the middle income and for the HDB heartlanders - prices there are still quite affordable for Singaporeans in general.’ Mr Goh said costs are always a factor but, generally, the government wants the standard of living to rise. ‘And a higher standard of living means more income in real terms, in the real sense.’ To compete in a high-cost environment, he said Singapore would have to move into higher value-added industries like biomedical services and financial services, education and health. ‘We cannot be doing things which we were doing before 1997, where China and India will become much more competitive.’ While costs will always be important, Mr Goh said the government is not going to let them stop Singapore growing. ‘(We) just move into the right sector,’ he said. The interview was part of a CNBC special programme to mark the 10th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis. Recalling that dark event in Asia’s recent history, Mr Goh said the main worry then was whether the crisis would engulf Singapore or instil a sense of confidence in Singaporeans. ‘Once we have taken note of the whole situation, knowing that internally, our economy is strong, we were not too worried. We knew that we could survive. ‘So, the most difficult thing was to give confidence to Singaporeans that we can survive the crisis. That’s where the cost cutting measures amounting to some $10 billion was a very important move on our part. It’s to restore confidence not just among investors, but among Singaporeans that we could withstand the crisis.’ And one big lesson learnt was the need for a strong financial sector. ‘We realised very much earlier that the financial industry is a global industry and therefore, you’ve got to be more aware of what’s happening in the world and in the region, in particular . . . In other words, it requires cooperation from other countries as well.’

Source : Business Times , 06 July 2007

Talk of a housing bubble in China and other parts of East Asia is much exaggerated

Talk of a housing bubble in China and other parts of East Asia is much exaggerated TEN years after the start of East Asia’s financial crisis, some economists are fretting that the region is heading for another bust as abundant liquidity and low interest rates inflate bubbles in shares and housing. The bursting of property bubbles in 1997 played a big part in the region’s economic and financial meltdown. Average house prices fell by 20-50% in real terms in most countries between 1997 and 2003. In Hong Kong, nominal prices slumped by as much as two-thirds. China escaped relatively lightly in 1997-98. But today a collapse in house prices could have nasty consequences—more severe than a bursting of its stockmarket bubble. That is because 80% of China’s urban households now own their home (in America, the national figure is 69%), compared with only around 10% owning shares. It is fortunate, therefore, that for all the talk about a housing bubble, by most measures it does not exist. Average house prices have risen by 30% in China since 2002, less than the 46% jump in America. Admittedly, prices in Shanghai have almost doubled. At the peak of the boom in 2004, the prices of luxury apartments in Shanghai were rising at an annual rate of 50%, but the government has since successfully cooled the market with a capital-gains tax on homes resold within five years and an increase in minimum down payments. In a developed economy, double-digit annual price gains would indeed look bubbly, but not in an economy where nominal GDP is growing at a rate of 14%. Across the globe, studies show that in the long term the main driver of house prices is income. The ratio of average house prices to average incomes is currently flashing red in America, Britain, Spain and quite a few other developed countries where it has soared to record highs—ie, above levels that preceded previous crashes. In China, in contrast, average nationwide house prices have risen much more slowly than incomes. According to a report in the latest China Economic Quarterly , the ratio of house prices to disposable income has fallen by 25% since 1999. Even in Shanghai house prices have barely outrun incomes. A study by Bank Credit Analyst, a Canadian financial-research firm, concludes that, based on the long-run relationship between house prices and GDP per head, China is one of the most undervalued markets among those that it studied. Another symptom of a bubble would be a big increase in mortgage borrowing. Heavy debts would also exacerbate the consequences of any fall in house prices. Mortgage debt has been rising rapidly in China, but from a low base. Before 1997 there were few mortgages, and even now they account for only 10% of GDP , compared with 70-80% in America and Britain. Over half of Chinese owners obtained their homes at well below market rates during the housing privatisation from the late 1990s onwards. Apartments were sold to tenants at rock-bottom prices and, because households had large savings, only half of all owners have a mortgage. Of those who bought with a loan in 2005, the average mortgage was only 63% of the home’s value; in America 100% mortgages have been common. Elsewhere in Asia property prices have also risen briskly during the past few years, but this follows sharp declines, so prices are still below previous peaks. After the property crash of the late 1990s, consumers were less keen to take on housing debt and banks were reluctant to lend. It has taken years for confidence to recover. The hottest market this year is Singapore, where house prices jumped by 14% in the 12 months to March; luxury properties are up by 30-40%. However, over the past four years as a whole, Singapore has seen the smallest gain in the region (see left-hand chart below) and is still 25% below its 1996 high. Likewise, despite much concern about a 12% leap last year in average house prices in South Korea, they have risen by less than a quarter over the past four years. The market in Seoul is certainly fizzing, with prices up by 20% last year, prompting the government to raise interest rates and to introduce tax measures to cool things down. Hong Kong saw property prices jump by 40% during 2004 and 2005, but they have since been relatively flat. Some luxury developments have hit new highs this year, but average prices are still 45% below their peak. In Thailand, Taiwan and Malaysia, house prices fell in real terms over the past year. A recent study by the IMF finds little evidence of housing bubbles in most Asian countries. Since 1999 house prices have risen more slowly than income in South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong as well as China (see right-hand chart above). In contrast, in America, house prices have risen three times as fast as real incomes. Standard Chartered, a bank, calculates that in relation to incomes, housing in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand is now 37-58% more affordable than it was during the peaks of those markets in the 1990s. Don’t buy in Mumbai The only Asian country where a bubble leaps out from these charts is India, where average prices have risen by 16% a year over the past four years, well ahead of average income. It is the only country where house prices have surged by more than in America. In Bangalore and Mumbai prices doubled during 2005 and 2006. According to Global Property Guide, a research firm, equivalent apartments in South Mumbai now cost three times more than in Shanghai, and not much less than in Tokyo—even though Indian incomes are much lower. Looking ahead the question is no longer whether, but by how much, prices will fall. Property prices in Mumbai and Bangalore have already started to slip this year as mortgage rates have increased sharply. Elsewhere in Asia, expect home prices to keep climbing. The rest of the world is experiencing its biggest housing bubble in history: never before have real house-prices risen so fast in so many countries. But Asia has yet to join the party.

Source: The Economist print edition - 5 July 2007

Little India ‘white site’ could fetch up to $280m

Little India ‘white site’ could fetch up to $280m

By UMA SHANKARI

THE Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday launched a ‘white site’ at the junction of Race Course Road and Rangoon Road for sale by public tender. Experts believe the 1.36 ha could fetch as much as $280 million.

The 99-year leasehold site, which is directly above the Farrer Park MRT Station in Little India, has a 4.2 plot ratio, which means it can generate a maximum gross floor area (GFA) of about 57,225 sq m.
‘Judging by the nearby City Square Residences, the site could fetch $400-$450 per square foot per plot ratio,’ said Lui Seng Fatt, regional director at Jones Lang LaSalle. This works out to $246.4-$277.2 million.
The land parcel is zoned white, which means that it can be put to a range of uses including hotel, retail, dining, entertainment, office and residential. The site, however, comes with a URA requirement that at least 40 per cent of its maximum GFA to be allocated for hotel use.
‘The minimum quantum of hotel use will provide opportunities to meet the demand for hotel accommodation in this area given its location near the historic district of Little India, which is popular with tourists and locals,’ the URA said.

The successful bidder can then choose to develop the remaining 60 per cent of GFA for additional hotel and/or residential, commercial or hospital uses, the government body added. Allowing hospital use will help meet increased interest in private hospital developments, the URA said.
The land parcel is one of the ten sites that were transferred from the reserve list to the confirmed List of the Government Land Sales Programme for the second half of 2007. The site was first offered in August last year, but saw no takers. The URA then decided to open up the plot to hospital development.
Even then, a developer will be most likely to use the remaining 60 per cent GFA for residential and commercial space rather than hospital development, observers said.
‘Residential and commercial use will probably prevail because it provides better opportunities for that area,’ Mr Lui said.
Source : Business Times , 06 July 2007

Market may correct but no shadow of crisis: SM

Market may correct but no shadow of crisis: SM
Lessons learnt, bonds forged in ‘97 financial trauma

By CHUANG PECK MING

(SINGAPORE) Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) chairman Goh Chok Tong does not see a financial crisis coming, even if there’s some correction in the stock market.

‘I don’t think a financial crisis will happen,’ he told the British Broadcasting Corporation in an interview marking the 10th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis. ‘But whether the stock market will continue to go up and share prices go up the way they have gone up, I don’t know.’
Mr Goh, who is also Senior Minister, does not think the government should interfere in the stock market.
‘Should the authorities warn? The market has got to decide, provided the information is there,’ he said. ‘People know the price-earnings ratio, they know the worth of a particular stock, whether the thing will go up. We’ll let them decide.’
But there could be a correction at some point of time, Mr Goh said in the interview which was televised yesterday morning. No one can tell when, though. ‘(But) let the market decide.’
He said the government is ‘quite confident’ that banks would not be hit even if their share prices were to fall. ‘They are not overlending, they are not overcommitted.’

The 1997 Asian financial crisis - in particular the sharp fall in the Thai baht that triggered it - had come as a shock to the Singapore government, said Mr Goh, who was then prime minister. But the countries hit have learnt their lessons.
‘All countries have learnt that they must have good corporate governance and they must have transparency for their financial transactions,’ he said. ‘The data must be there for the people to decide.’
According to him, Singapore has emerged from the crisis ‘more noteworthy’ in the eyes of investors and its standing as a financial hub enhanced further - thanks to the relatively small depreciation of the Singapore dollar and the steps the government took in dealing with the crisis.
‘We impressed upon investors that we knew how to handle the situation and this is a very disciplined society,’ he said. ‘We were able to swallow the bitter pill in order to recover from the crisis. So, the way we recovered, the way we handled the crisis, I thought, gave us some good points insofar as our standing as a financial centre was concerned.’ The crisis has also brought the Asian region together - and they have put in place contingency plans should something similar occur, Mr Goh said. ‘The countries which were less hit were rallying together to help the countries which were very badly hit.’
When Thailand was hit, Singapore, among others, pledged US$1 billion as part of a line of credit to be extended by the International Monetary Fund. It was also in the forefront to help Indonesia when the country was next hit.
‘Even Malaysia, which was quite hit by the crisis, also pledged in a smaller way to help Indonesia,’ Mr Goh noted.
‘So, that sense of getting together was very important for us - that when one country was in trouble, others rallied behind the country.’
Source : Business Times , 06 July 2007