Private home prices fall 5.9% in Q2

Private home prices fall 5.9% in Q2

Suburban home sales prop up market; experts surprised at drop given buying craze last month

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent

PRIVATE home prices slowed their downward slide in the second quarter, with suburban homes helping to hold up the market.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) announced yesterday that its initial estimates showed a 5.9 per cent fall in private home prices from April to last month, following a record 14.1 per cent slide in the first quarter.

Some property experts yesterday expressed surprise at the larger-than-expected drop. And with the recent strong demand, they are expecting to see a much smaller fall in four weeks’ time, when final second-quarter figures are released.

A few are even expecting to see a small price rise by then because of last month’s buying craze, which saw project launches attracting rising numbers of investors and speculators.

But given that the current frenzy is being whipped up against a still-weak economic backdrop, more analysts are turning cautious, saying it is unsustainable.

Yesterday, the URA reported prices of non-landed homes in the suburban areas falling just 2.6 per cent in the second quarter, compared with a bigger 6.6 per cent slide in city-centre prices and a 6.3 per cent decline in city-fringe prices.

The smaller mass-market price fall reflected the strong buying support from upgraders in the HDB market, where resale prices reversed a marginal fall to rise by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter.

The stock market rally, coupled with strong liquidity, has resulted in a surge in second-quarter new home sales. CBRE Research estimated that 4,000 new homes were sold - more than 50 per cent above the 2,596 units sold in the first quarter.

The volume lent support to home prices and, in some cases, allowed developers to raise their prices when supply was tight, it said.

The second quarter also saw more new launches at higher price levels because they were located either on the city fringe or in prime districts, CBRE Research added. These include Martin Place Residences, The Wharf Residence, One Devonshire and the sold-out 8@Woodleigh.

CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said the 5.9 per cent decline in private home prices is ‘contrary to the present market perception’ as actual price levels in the second quarter are known to have risen more than 10 per cent from the first quarter.

DTZ head of South-east Asia research Chua Chor Hoon described the fall as ’surprising’ because prices picked up around last month - especially in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11.

Average home prices were still relatively flat in April and May - some developments saw price increases, while others saw price falls - she said. But last month, resale home prices rose from 3 per cent in the mass-market segment to as much as 11 per cent in prime areas, she added.

‘Going forward, developers are likely to test the market with gradual price increases. Should the current momentum hold, we can expect private property prices to increase by 5 per cent to 8 per cent in the second half of the year,’said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim.

While local buyers are now supporting the market, more foreign investors may come when the integrated resorts open, he added.

Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying thinks the strength of pent-up demand should not be underestimated as new home sales had sunk to a low of 4,264 units last year - half of the annual average of about 8,500 new units since 2000.

Home sales could remain robust in the second half of this year, possibly reaching 12,000 units or more. This will hinge on price rises not exceeding 5 per cent for mass-market homes and 10 per cent for higher-tier homes, as buyers remain price sensitive in view of the absence of economic expansion and growth in employment and personal income, she said.

If the positive buying mood continues, the third-quarter price index may show a rise, said OrangeTee’s executive director (residential), Mr Steven Tan.

Others, like Ms Chua, think the final second-quarter index may already show some increase when more June caveats are included in the computation of the index. But she thinks this could be a ‘temporary blip’ with resistance setting in at some levels and prices possibly stagnant or falling from as early as the the third quarter onwards.

Source : Straits Times - 02 July 2009

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HDB resale prices up 1.2%

HDB resale prices up 1.2%

Surprise increase in index reverses first quarter’s dip to reach new high

By Jessica Cheam

PRICES of HDB flats have staged a surprising comeback, reversing a first-quarter dip of 0.8 per cent to rise 1.2 per cent in the second quarter and reach a historical high.

Flash estimates from the Housing and Development Board (HDB) released yesterday show the resale price index rising to 140 - a record level not seen since the current index started in 1990.

It beats the previous record set in the fourth quarter of last year when it hit just over 139.

Market analysts said they were caught off-guard by the turnaround, as many had been predicting 2 to 10 per cent declines in HDB resale flat prices for this year after a descent began in the first quarter - the first one since 2006.

Yesterday’s numbers have changed expectations, with analysts reversing their forecasts for HDB flat prices to hold or increase by up to 5 per cent this year.

Industry observers attribute the latest surprise figures to three factors.

First, talk of an economic recovery has gathered momentum, backed by the recent stock market rally and brisk private property sales. This has slowed the slide in private property prices islandwide.

Flash figures capturing sales prices in the first 10 weeks of the quarter,released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority yesterday, show prices falling 5.9 per cent in the second quarter, compared to a 14.1 per cent decline in the previous quarter.

The marked slowdown in the price decline is in line with rising transaction prices evident since the strong rebound in home sales since February, said Colliers International’s director for research and advisory, Ms Tay Huey Ying.

More bullish sentiment, coupled with the strength in HDB resale prices, has supported the private market, say analysts.

High HDB valuations is another key factor. HDB upgraders - buyers with HDB addresses buying private property - have been able to sell their units at high valuations and for tidy profits to fund private property purchases.

Banking executive Vic Cheow, 28, is one such HDB upgrader who recently sold a four-room HDB flat to buy a three-bed condominium unit in Jurong.

Due to the high valuations, buyers do not need to dig deep for upfront cash - otherwise known as cash-over-valuation - to purchase resale flats.

‘We found selling at a profit easier as a result of this,’ said Mrs Cheow.

ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim reports that the agency, which accounts for more than 40 per cent of the HDB resale market, saw transaction volumes surge 52 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first.

‘The feeling in the second quarter is the recession hasn’t been as bad as it seems,’ said Mr Lim. Many sellers have become more willing to negotiate and are realistic, especially those selling larger flats, he added.

The third factor, flagged by Chesterton Suntec International head of research Colin Tan, is that demand far outstrips supply. HDB launched 7,793 new flats last year and will launch another 3,700 in the first nine months of this year.

‘HDB may have ramped up the supply of new flats recently, but it’s not enough and it takes too long,’ said Mr Tan. ‘There is still a lot of pent-up demand from a needs-based group of people. And they have no choice but to pay high prices because they cannot wait.’

A Credit Suisse report released recently notes that total public and private housing supply for 2008 to 2012 is 16,000 on average per year - 42 per cent lower than the 10-year historical average.

‘This does not look excessive versus the annual average 24,000 household formations or marriages,’ said the report.

But, added Mr Tan, it seems ‘unnatural for prices to rise against the fundamentals of the economy’, which is still in recession.

More detailed public and private housing data for the second quarter is set to be released at the end of this month.

Source : Straits Times  - 02 July 2009

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90% of investors optimistic about market opportunities despite downturn

90% of investors optimistic about market opportunities despite downturn

By Tang See Kit,

SINGAPORE: High net worth investors seemed unperturbed by the economic downturn and reckoned that it is still a good time to invest in the current market.

A survey by financial services group Barclays Wealth found that almost 90 per cent of these investors remain optimistic about investment opportunities available.

It also said now is a good time to invest despite a strong rally in equity markets over the past few months.

However, investors’ fear of further price falls remained the biggest obstacle before investors start investing again.

The survey said about 70 per cent of investors globally fear further price falls. It was the same in Singapore as more than half of the investors polled shared this view.

The survey also indicated several key trends.

Despite the market uncertainty due to the financial crisis, more than half of these wealthy investors globally are investing in what they are familiar with.

Stability of the financial institutions as well as the quality and transparency of investor information have also become key factors to investors in making their investment decisions.

Didier von Daeniken, chief executive, Barclays Wealth Asia Pacific, said: “We are seeing a change in the way high net worth investors approach investment.

“Due to the dramatic developments over the past 12 months, those investors seeking greater exposure to specific assets tend to focus on the most straightforward - with real estate, cash and domestic equities - the most likely beneficiaries of increased allocation.”

At the same time, the survey said high net worth individuals have become more circumspect when making their investment decisions.

The survey also found a loss of confidence in major institutions.

Investors from Hong Kong, India and Spain were least impressed with their governments, while 25 per cent of investors in Singapore rated the government’s handling of the crisis as being successful.

Gender differences in investment decisions were also noted in the survey. In general, male investors held more positive and bolder economic outlooks as compared to female investors.

In Singapore for instance, only one female investor out of every three male investors was willing to make higher-risk investments.

Close to 30 per cent of male investors were likely to increase their trading frequency in the stock market, compared to 18 per cent of female investors.

Male investors were also more likely to spend more time selecting and analyzing specific investments and their portfolios.

The survey, by Barclays Wealth and the Economist Intelligence Unit, surveyed 2,100 high worth individuals across the world. It was conducted between March and May this year. - CNA/vm

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 02 July 2009

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URA to release industrial site at Kaki Bukit Road 2

URA to release industrial site at Kaki Bukit Road 2

(SINGAPORE) The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) will launch a public tender for an industrial site at Kaki Bukit Road 2 in two weeks’ time, it said yesterday. The 1.07 ha site was made available for sale through the government’s reserve list system in May 2009.

Under the reserve list system, the government will put up a site for public tender only if it receives an application from a developer who commits to bid for the site at or above the minimum price which is acceptable to the government.

URA has received an application from a developer who has committed to bid at a price of not less than $5 million for the land parcel at Kaki Bukit Road 2, it said. The price works out to about $43 per square foot (psf).

The site comes with a lease period of 30 years. It is zoned for a Business 2 development, which means that it can be developed for a range of clean, light and general industrial uses.

Industrial rents will be under pressure given the broader economic outlook and weak demand for Singapore exports, said Nomura Research in a June 29 report on Singapore’s property market.

‘While the market appears to be pricing in a new economic optimism, the real estate sector is still faced with the dual reality of rental declines and higher yields as growth expectations are pared,’ said the report. Rents could decline by 31.7 per cent over the property cycle, Nomura believes.

Source : Business Times - 02 July 2009

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Singapore rises to 18th in global ranking of retail rents

Singapore rises to 18th in global ranking of retail rents

38% of top global retailers have presence here, CBRE survey finds

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

SINGAPORE moved up a notch to 18th position in a ranking of the world’s most expensive retail locations at end-Q1 2009, from 19th position at end-2008, according to CB Richard Ellis’s latest Global Retail Market View.

Trendy: Super prime retail rents along Orchard Rd at the end of Q2 was S$49.80 psf per month, down 3.9 per cent from the preceding quarter and 8.5 per cent lower than in the year-ago period
Singapore also emerged 11th in CBRE’s ranking of the top 15 Global Retail Cities as at the end of last year. This was based on the percentage of leading global retailers present in cities. London was number one (59 per cent), followed by Paris (50 per cent), New York (47 per cent) and Dubai (46 per cent). About 38 per cent of top global retailers have a presence in Singapore, slightly lower than Tokyo (39 per cent).

The average super prime retail rental value along Orchard Road at the end of the first quarter was US$408 per sq ft per annum, or S$51.80 psf a month.

Giving an update, CBRE in Singapore said the figure for end-Q2 2009 was S$49.80 psf per month, down 3.9 per cent from the preceding quarter and 8.5 per cent lower than in the year-ago period.

‘Going forward, we expect the rate of rental decline for prime space along Orchard Road to ease given the healthy demand for existing shop space as well as high pre-commitment levels seen at yet-to-be-completed malls,’ said CBRE’s director, retail services, Letty Lee.

‘Going forward, we expect the rate of rental decline for prime space along Orchard Road to ease.’

- Letty Lee,
CBRE’s director, retail services

About 2.5 million sq ft of new shop space will be completed here this year, followed by a further 2.2 million sq ft next year.

CBRE’s Global Retail Market View shows New York remains the world’s most expensive retail location, with an average rental value of US$1,800 psf per annum in the latest end-Q1 ranking. This was despite a 10 per cent year-on-year rental decline.

Hong Kong held on to second place. But Moscow overtook Tokyo to grab the third place. Paris ranked fourth and Tokyo fifth.

CBRE notes that prime retail rents have fallen in almost every region worldwide, as the global recession hits consumer sentiment and retail sales.

‘Demand for retail space has declined in most markets as consumers cut back on spending and unemployment continues to rise in many countries,’ it says.

‘Emerging and less established markets have been most significantly affected. Buenos Aires saw the largest annual decline in retail rents year on year with a drop of 37 per cent, followed by Warsaw with a 33 per cent decline and Washington with a 26 per cent decline.

‘While some markets have continued to experience year-on-year increases in retail rents, in many cases the current pressure is downward.’

Source : Business Times - 02 July 2009

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AIG has ‘excellent chance’ of repaying govt: CEO

AIG has ‘excellent chance’ of repaying govt: CEO

(NEW YORK) American International Group Inc, the insurer bailed out by the US, has an ‘excellent chance’ of repaying the government, chief executive officer Edward Liddy said on Tuesday at the company’s annual meeting.

AIG said last week it would reduce its debt under a Federal Reserve credit line by US$25 billion by handing over stakes in two life insurance units that operate outside the US. The New York-based company has tapped about US$40 billion from the line.

AIG has received four bailouts, totalling US$182.5 billion, after agreeing in September to turn over a majority stake to the US when the company was overwhelmed by losses on bad bets tied to the US housing market. In addition to a US$60 billion credit line, the rescue includes US$52.5 billion to buy mortgage-linked assets owned or insured by the company, and an investment of as much as US$70 billion.

‘We believe there is an excellent chance that we can repay the government,’ Mr Liddy said.

Tuesday’s meeting, previously scheduled for May 13, had been postponed as the trustees overseeing the US stake sought newcomers for the board. Mr Liddy has said that he plans to step down from the board and that the chairman and CEO posts should be split. — Bloomberg

Source : Business Times - 02 July 2009

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HDB gives small retailers a leg up with new initiatives

HDB gives small retailers a leg up with new initiatives

THE Housing and Development Board (HDB) held its inaugural retail seminar yesterday - to help heartland retailers remain competitive and relevant.

Going online: Through the newly launched website, Where2Shop@HDB, users can find products and services provided by HDB shops in different districts
Through networking and input from successful entrepreneurs, HDB hopes to create awareness of opportunities available to heartland retailers and inspire them to improve their operations.

‘This is a key way for us to reach the retailers themselves,’ said Senior Minister of State for National Development and Education Grace Fu, who was guest of honour at the seminar.

‘Besides looking at hardware upgrading and improving facilities, it is important for shopowners to have the opportunity to upgrade their retail management skills.’

HDB also launched the website Where2Shop@HDB - an online directory of heartland shops in the 148 towns and neighbourhood centres island-wide.

Through a simple search, users can find products and services provided by HDB shops in different districts. Transport advice and maps will be offered alongside the information.

Ms Fu said: ‘Small retailers have to keep up with the challenge of the newer and bigger shopping complexes coming up. We are helping them by providing a directory, consolidating businesses, helping them get listed on line and hopefully getting the mind-share of younger shoppers who are Internet savvy.’

While the government is helping retailers through various schemes, it is vital that retailers be receptive to new ideas so as to create new markets for themselves, Ms Fu said.

Where2Shop@HDB is looking at listing more than 10,000 heartland shops.

Asked whether HDB will host the site in a language other than English, Ms Fu said: ‘We will definitely consider doing so if there is positive feedback.’

Source : Business Times - 02 July 2009

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Home team to keep casinos crime free

Home team to keep casinos crime free

Seminar to prepare officers for gaming industry held

By ZHANG YI TING

THE success of the upcoming casinos at the integrated resorts hinges on whether they can be kept free of criminal influence, says Law Minister K Shanmugam, who is also second Minister for Home Affairs.

Hands on approach: The symposium also comprises an educational exhibition, which features various electronic gaming and table machines, to give viewers an appreciation of the technology involved
To this end, the Casino Regulatory Authority (CRA) and the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of the Singapore Police Force have joined hands to organise a two day training symposium, starting yesterday, for more than 200 of their officers.

Themed Casino Regulation and Enforcement: Strengthening Collaboration, Enhancing Preparedness, the symposium features various presentations by speakers from casino jurisdictions and foreign law enforcement agencies, as well as workshops on table games and casino scams and counter measures, to expose officers to different aspects of the gaming industry.

Among the list of invited speakers are representatives from the Nevada Gaming Control Board and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Speaking at the opening of the symposium, Mr Shanmugam emphasised the importance of training opportunities that prepare home team officers for the challenges ahead, as ‘the IRs are potential targets, not just for criminals, but also for terrorists’.

‘Our robust frameworks and varied experiences must translate to safety, security, law and order on the ground. To achieve this, frontline forces and domain owners need to be attuned to the operating environment in and around the IRs as a whole,’ he added.

The symposium also comprises an educational exhibition, which features various electronic gaming and table machines, aimed at giving viewers an appreciation of the technology involved in the gaming industry.

Said CID director, senior assistant commissioner Ng Boon Gay: ‘The CRA and CID collaboration will be a long lasting one and this joint training symposium is only just the beginning.’

Source : Business Times - 02 July 2009

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A softer slide in private home prices in Q2

A softer slide in private home prices in Q2

URA flash estimates show 5.9% fall but many expect final showing to be better

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) Singapore’s private home prices fell for a fourth straight quarter in Q2 2009 - but the marked slowdown in the rate of decline shows that the residential market here is recovering, analysts said.

The private residential price index fell 5.9 per cent in the second quarter, according to flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday. By contrast, the index fell 14.1 per cent in Q1.

The continuing fall in the index caught many analysts by surprise, as anecdotal evidence showed that private home prices started climbing again in the second quarter.

‘The decline is surprising as prices have picked up in the latter part of the second quarter, especially in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11,’ said DTZ’s head of South-east Asia research Chua Chor Hoon.

Echoed Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research: ‘This smaller decline in the price index is contrary to the present market perception where actual price levels in the second quarter were known to be more than 10 per cent above those in the first quarter.’

CBRE’s data showed that the median price registered in the second quarter for new 99-year leasehold projects was $788,000 - some 13.2 per cent higher than the median of $696,000 in Q1. For new freehold non-landed properties, it was $928,000 - 26.6 per cent higher than the first quarter’s $733,000. Some 3,800- 4,000 new homes were estimated to have been sold in Q2, 50 per cent more than the 2,596 units sold in the first quarter, the firm said.

DTZ’s Ms Chua pointed out that URA’s flash estimates are based on transaction prices from caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter, while the buying frenzy gained pace in June. ‘I expect the final price index to fall less or show some increase when more caveats in June are included in the computation of the index,’ she said.

A URA spokesman said that while some developers had started raising prices recently, the extent of price increase quarter-on-quarter was small and pertained to selected projects.

‘On the other hand, more projects had seen a fall in prices over Q2 2009,’ said the spokesman. ‘Hence, overall prices in Q2 2009 as reflected by the flash index fell in comparison with Q1 2009.’

The revised index (which will be out on July 24) will capture caveats beyond the first 10 weeks of the quarter.

Meanwhile, the slower pace of decline for private home prices was seen across the whole island.

In Q2, prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased 6.6 per cent in the core central region (which includes the prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove), 6.3 per cent in the rest of central region, and 2.6 per cent in the outside central region (which is a proxy for suburban mass-market locations).

In comparison, in Q1 2009, prices fell 16.2 per cent in the core central region, 17 per cent in the rest of central region and 7.3 per cent in the outside central region.

The improved sentiment was also evident in the resale prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats.

The HDB resale price index, which fell for the first time in Q1 2009 after nine straight quarters of growth, also recovered somewhat to climb 1.2 per cent in Q2. The resale price index fell 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.

‘This price rebound shows that demand for HDB flats is still very strong despite current economic challenges,’ said Eugene Lim, ERA Asia Pacific’s associate director.

ERA, which says it has a 45 per cent market share of the HDB resale market, observed that its transaction volume surged some 52 per cent in Q2 over Q1.

Buyers are returning to the HDB market because sellers have become more realistic about asking prices - especially those selling five-room and executive flats, analysts said. Rather than holding out for higher cash-over-valuation (COV) amounts, most are now willing to sell at valuation or with a slight COV.

Analysts expect the property market recovery to continue - but cautioned against over-exuberance.

OCBC Investment Research analyst Foo Sze Ming said that property prices in Singapore are unlikely to surge to 2007 levels, even with the current recovery.

Then, prices were boosted by global real estate funds that bought up homes here for investment. ‘Since the economic crisis is still ongoing, I doubt that there will be that much interest from funds in the Singapore property market to drive prices up to 2007 levels this year,’ Mr Foo said.

‘We retain our cautious outlook for the Singapore residential market,’ said Nomura analysts Tony Darwell and Min Chow Sai in a June 29 report.

‘In our view, the directional trend in the market will be driven by the competing forces of inventory clearance and buyers motivated by current ‘value’ rather than expectations of a sustained recovery in asset prices.’

The analysts see the likelihood of a W-shaped recovery in asset prices, rather than their previous expectations of a U-shaped recovery, the note said.

Source : Business Times - 02 July 2009

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Strong demand at Nathan Residences relaunch

Strong demand at Nathan Residences relaunch 

By Joyce Teo 

FRESH evidence emerged yesterday of a possible short-term rebound in the private residential market with strong demand at a 91-unit development in River Valley.

A quiet relaunch preview was held at the freehold Nathan Residences - and 75 units were snapped up quickly. These sales were sealed even though there was no interest absorption scheme or stamp duty waiver to entice buyers.

The deals were done at $1,220 to $1,320 per sq ft - a level market observers say is not entirely cheap but is easily 30 per cent to 35 per cent below last year’s prices.

Small developer Tat Aik first released the Nathan Road project for sale in September last year. At prices averaging $1,800 to $2,000 psf, the project saw no takers.

Yesterday, the one-bedders were sold from about $730,000 to $785,000 while the two-bedders went for about $960,000 to just over $1 million. Those are the only two options at Nathan Residences - the one-bedders at 592 sq ft and the two-bedders at 786 sq ft.

All the one-bedders have been sold. The left-over units include eight penthouses costing around $1.6 million each and a few ground-floor units priced around $1.2 million.

Knight Frank, which marketed the project, said buyers were mostly couples and singles, and an overwhelming number were locals and permanent residents. HDB upgraders made up about 30 per cent of buyers.

‘This shows that confidence is back and people are willing to buy when something good comes along,’ said its executive director, Mr Peter Ow.

A new sold-out project sale nearby - The Mercury in Shanghai Road - was launched in March this year. Its 67 units went for a lower price range of $779 psf to $1,258 psf in March and April.

Market observers have said that more developers are preparing to launch their projects, hoping to bank on the renewed buying interest in the market.

Demand for new projects has generally risen as developers lower prices from earlier levels. The buying mood has also largely been helped by the recent rally in the stock market, observers said.

However, quite a number of individual sellers appear to have started raising their prices from the lows, following in the footsteps of some developers.

Upcoming major launches this month may include the 152-unit One Devonshire in the Killiney Road area, the 388-unit Oasis@Elias in Pasir Ris and Frasers Centrepoint Homes’ 330-unit leasehold project near the Woodleigh MRT station.

Source : Straits Times - 01 July 2009

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